By Megan Leonhardt

The Power of Positivity. Stocks were up today, so much so they reversed yesterday's declines. All major indexes all on pace for weekly gains of more than 1%.

The Nasdaq Composite wrapped up the day up 0.9%. The S&P 500 was up by about 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 144 points, or 0.3%.

All three major indexes approached their highest closing levels on record during the day, but pared back some of those gains in the last hour of trading. Still, the S&P was only 0.2% off from the record high reached on Oct. 8.

Tesla helped with today's surge, clawing back all of its post-earnings losses from yesterday after the auto maker reported weaker-than-expected earnings on Wednesday evening. Operating profit came in at about $1.6 billion, down 40% year over year, while Wall Street expected about $1.8 billion.

But as my colleague Al Root highlighted, investors shouldn't be too surprised by the bounce back. " Tesla stock often zigs when the odds say it will zag," Al says.

The Hot Stock: Dow Inc. +13.0% The Biggest Loser: Molina Healthcare -17.5%

Best Sector: Energy +1.3% Worst Sector: Consumer Staples -0.5%

Finally, Some Data

On the 24th day of the government shutdown, a small miracle will occur: investors, Fed watchers, and economists finally get government data.

Tomorrow we finally get the September edition of the Consumer Price Index thanks to the Social Security Administration's need to have complete third-quarter inflation data to calculate inflation-adjusted benefit payments.

It's ironic that for all the hype, the data will likely feel a "little bit stale, given it's coming out later in the month than usual. We're quite a ways away from September now. And on top of that, you know, I think the Fed looks set to cut next week almost regardless of what happens," says Matt Bush, U.S. economist at Guggenheim Investments.

The pace of inflation likely ticked up slightly in September, but like Bush, most economists think it won't be enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates next week.

Economists surveyed by FactSet expect the report to show that inflation remained on a fairly stable trajectory. They forecast the CPI rose 0.4% month over month in September, translating to annual growth of 3.1%.

If that proves to be the case, it will be the first time since the start of the year that headline CPI inflation was above 3%. In August, inflation also climbed 0.4% on the month and registered 2.9% year over year. The Fed maintains a 2% inflation target.

Core CPI inflation -- which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs -- is expected to show slightly less pickup. Economists project core CPI climbed 0.3% month over month in September, the same pace as August. Annual growth is expected to be 3.1%, the same rate as August as well.

Economists do expect to see minor effects of tariffs still working their way through the economy, but overall, inflation is still largely projected to remain lower the 3.5% year-over-year growth that many feared would come to pass earlier this year.

"The inflation passthrough has so far been more muted than anticipated, likely due to a combination of margin compression, inventory frontloading, and trade diversion," writes Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

With the current modest expectations for inflation pickup this year, the Fed will likely focus on the weaker labor conditions that have taken hold when it conducts its final two meetings of the year. The stalled hiring momentum all but assures that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point cut at next week's meeting on Oct. 28-29.

The Calendar

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, General Dynamics, HCA Healthcare, Illinois Tool Works, Procter & Gamble, and Sanofi announce quarterly results.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for September.

S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes for October. Consensus estimates are for a 51.7 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 53.5 for the Services PMI. This compares with readings of 52 and 54.2, respectively, in September.

What We're Reading Today

   -- Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Are Changing. How to Get Ready. 
 
   -- The AI Bubble Won't Just Take Down the Stock Market. It Will Hammer the 
      U.S. Economy, Too. 
 
   -- Oil Rallies on Trump Sanctions. Traders See a Head-Fake. 
 
   -- AI-Exposed Jobs See Bigger Wage Gains, Research Finds 
 
   -- The Market Loves Junk Stocks. How to Avoid Getting Taken Out With the 
      Trash. 

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 23, 2025 17:39 ET (21:39 GMT)

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