Chubb Ltd. (NYSE:CB) announced third-quarter results that exceeded expectations on nearly all key metrics, citing stronger underwriting performance, lower catastrophe losses, and solid investment income.

Citizens JMP Securities analysts, led by Matthew J. Carletti, reaffirmed their Market Outperform rating on Chubb with a $325 price forecast, citing the company’s upbeat earnings performance.

Analysts said Chubb reported operating EPS of $7.49, well above both their estimate of $6.64 and the consensus of $6.15. The outperformance was driven by three main factors.

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Drivers of Strong Operating EPS

First, the underlying Property and Casualty (P&C) combined ratio was strong at 82%, beating the expected 85%. Second, catastrophe losses were lower than forecast at $285 million, compared with the $405 million estimated.

The third driver was more favorable prior-period reserve development of $361 million versus the expected $139 million, primarily originating from North America Personal P&C.

Net investment income (NII) also came in higher at $1.78 billion versus $1.73 billion projected. P&C net written premiums rose 5% on a constant currency basis, in line with estimates. The analysts noted that book value per share stood at $182 as of September 30, up 5% from the prior quarter but slightly below forecasts.

Chubb repurchased $1.23 billion of shares during the quarter, significantly higher than the analysts’ expected $500 million, and said it will continue buybacks as management believes the stock trades below intrinsic value.

CEO Evan Greenberg described the company’s diversified footprint as a key advantage in navigating shifting commercial P&C cycles, saying its 「balance of business and deep local presence」 supports long-term, profitable growth.

International Expansion

The analysts reiterated Chubb as a top pick, highlighting its broad international exposure as a structural growth driver. It cited expanding operations in Asia and Latin America, including the acquisitions of Liberty Mutual’s P&C operations in Thailand and Vietnam, Cigna’s Asia-Pacific A&H and Life business, and an 85.5% majority stake in China’s Huatai Insurance Group. The company also launched a digital life product with Nubank in Brazil.

The company delivered stronger-than-expected underwriting results in the third quarter, with the accident-year ex-catastrophe combined ratio improving to 82%, ahead of the 85% estimate. 

Analyst Projections

Analysts at Citizens JMP Securities project steady earnings growth for Chubbover over the next two years. For fiscal 2025, the firm estimates operating income of $9.54 billion and earnings per share of $23.75. For fiscal 2026, Chubb’s operating income is forecast to climb to $10.59 billion, with EPS rising to $27.00.

Price Action: CB shares were trading higher by 2.01% to $274.66 at last check Wednesday.

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