AI芯片軍備競賽背後，HBM成了資源戰爭的焦點

半導體產業報告

10/21

在半導體行業，如果說誰是AI時代下的「顯眼包」，那一定是HBM。三年前還只是高性能計算邊緣角色的HBM，如今已經成為AI芯片不可或缺的核心資源。日前，TrendForce 發佈的《How AI Growth Will Drive HBM Demand Beyond 2025》報告，為我們提供了一個極具價值的視角：未來兩年，HBM不僅將深刻影響AI芯片格局，也正在重塑整個DRAM市場的收益結構。這...

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07:50","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2577897613","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"AI芯片軍備競賽背後，HBM成了資源戰爭的焦點","media":"半導體產業報告","content":"<div>\n<p>在半導體行業，如果說誰是AI時代下的「顯眼包」，那一定是HBM。三年前還只是高性能計算邊緣角色的HBM，如今已經成為AI芯片不可或缺的核心資源。日前，TrendForce 發佈的《How AI Growth Will Drive HBM Demand Beyond 2025》報告，為我們提供了一個極具價值的視角：未來兩年，HBM不僅將深刻影響AI芯片格局，也正在重塑整個DRAM市場的收益結構。這...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251021075259a6c49068&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI芯片軍備競賽背後，HBM成了資源戰爭的焦點</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251021075259a6c49068&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251021075259a6c49068&s=b\">半導體產業報告</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0719512351.SGD","symbol_name":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251021075259a6c49068&s=b","article_id":"2577897613","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251021075259a6c49068&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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市佔率也將在2025年衝到“高十幾”%。HBM的產能擴張不是盲目堆量，而是高度集中於HBM3e和HBM4節點，因為這些版本已成為AI芯片的標準配置。“誰掌握了HBM產線，誰就掌握了AI芯片生態的主動權。”二、AI芯片需求：一場卷內存的大戲NVIDIA、AMD、Google、AWS等芯片巨頭的產品路線圖清晰顯示——HBM容量正在被推到極致。NVIDIA 預計在 2026 年推出的 GB300 芯片，單顆最高將配置576GB HBM3e；AMD 的 MI400 也將進入HBM4 288GB時代；Google 和 AWS 則加速自研 AI ASICs，HBM 成為標配，從 HBM2 到 HBM3e 迅速升級。更重要的是，NVIDIA 由於產品性能和市場接受度高，2025年對HBM的消耗將達到全行業的68%，其芯片的“內存吞噬量”是決定HBM需求天花板的關鍵因子。而這背後，藏着一場高端芯片的軍備競賽——誰能“裝下更多HBM”，誰的AI芯片就可能更強大。三、價格趨勢：貴得有理，還會更貴報告預測，2025年HBM的平均銷售單價（ASP）將同比上漲20.8%，達到1.80美元/Gb。為什麼漲這麼猛？HBM3e的滲透率迅速上升，而它的成本和技術要求遠高於前代；AI公司為了保證供應，超額採購HBM以防斷供；三星在HBM3e上的產能與技術認證進度落後，供應偏緊。這是一場供需邏輯主導的價格拉昇，不是炒作，而是現實。“當AI大模型像吞金獸一樣壓榨內存帶寬時，HBM的每一個Gb都變成了黃金。”四、市場格局：DRAM三巨頭重新排位過去，三星是DRAM收入的長期王者，但報告指出：2025年第一季度，SK hynix 首次超越三星，成為DRAM營收冠軍；原因不在於總產能，而在於——HBM帶來的收入激增；到2025年，HBM將佔到DRAM總營收的33%，而僅佔比特產出的8%。也就是説，HBM雖然量少，但價高，毛利足，成為拉高收入和利潤的“暴利高地”。這讓我們看到了一個明顯趨勢：未來的DRAM市場不拼誰產得多，而是拼誰能掌控HBM產能、拿下AI芯片客户。五、產業洞察：AI芯片背後的內存戰爭如果我們把AI芯片看作是一場超級芯片戰，那HBM就是“糧草”。這場戰爭的邏輯正在被悄悄改寫：算力瓶頸不在計算，而在內存帶寬；AI大模型越強，HBM的容量和通道壓力越大；HBM變成了AI芯片生態的戰略資源，而非可選配件。這意味着：內存廠商將不再是“幕後配角”，而是走上台前，成為決定AI時代下游競爭力的關鍵角色。從台積電押注先進封裝，到英偉達自研互聯架構，再到HBM價格年年走高，底層基礎設施的戰爭，才剛剛開始。真正的變量，藏在“無聊參數”背後HBM的故事，其實是另一個層面的算力戰爭。不是誰跑得更快，而是誰能扛得更久；不是誰芯片做得更強，而是誰有足夠的“內存續航”。它不是明星產品，卻決定了明星能否登場。我們習慣了在AI芯片上比拼峯值性能，卻常常忽略，那些高速計算的背後，是一塊塊高密度、高帶寬的HBM在默默支撐。所以，有時候，一個時代的答案，不寫在頭牌芯片的參數表裏，而藏在供應鏈最底層那行看起來“無聊”的位寬、帶寬和顆粒數。未來兩年，誰理解了這點，誰就能真正看清方向。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}