MW A global 'polycrisis' is looming, sparked by China, Taiwan and AI, say these researchers

By Jules Rimmer

Whoever creates artificial superintelligence first will command enormous geopolitical, military and economic advantages.

The trade dispute between America and China will be decidedin favour of the winner of the battle for AI supremacy, predicts this geopolitical expert.

The world is heading toward a simultaneous convergence of geopolitical, technological and economic shocks combining to bring about a system-wide global crisis around 2027, says a research paper put forward by a London-based strategic research firm.

At the center of what it calls a "polycrisis" is the fate of Taiwan control of Taiwan Semiconductor $(TSM)$, which makes chips for Nvidia (NVDA) and other companies on a contract basis.

That may be paired with other crisis scenarios including a Russian-created crisis within NATO territory, an Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a North Korean attack on South Korea and the U.S., a political fracturing across the U.S. and Europe that inhibits responses and a denial of global trade routes that will sever supplies.

"The probability of a systemic global crisis peaking in 2027 isincreasingly credible," says the firm Sibylline in a strategic paper they say is based on intelligence reports, think-tank forecasts, economic analysis as well as its own research.

The report came ahead of the fourth plenum of the Chinese Communist Party this weekend reaffirming its "One China" principle and voting to designate Oct. 25 as a commemoration holiday for the restoration of Taiwan. The country's constitution already stipulates that reunification is a national duty.

Sibylline's research is targeted at corporates, governments, and investment firms but the content clearly impacts upon asset markets.

The report says the U.S. will lose unfettered access to Taiwanese-produced chips or be obliged to pay dearly for them. This will inhibit the growth potential for AI stocks and be detrimental to the valuations the markets attach to them, the firm says. Sibylline does not provide financial markets advice.

Sibylline posits that, faced with mounting economic and political pressure internally, China may feel compelled to force unification with Taiwan in 2027. The move would be tied to President Xi Jinping's personal legitimacy and Beijing's broader ambition of dominating the fourth industrial revolution, the short-hand term to describe the technological advance of global commerce in the 21st century.

American capex investment into AI will exceed $1 trillion between 2025 and 2027

The paper's authors, Sam Olsen, Derek Leatherdale and Justin Crump, emphasize that AI is fundamental to China's 4IR strategy. "It's the core technology." However, the linchpin to global AI development is Taiwan's semiconductor industry, and principally TSMC which has 90% market share in advanced semiconductors.

The Sibylline team believes without TSMC's chips, neither the U.S. nor China can win the AI race, setting the stage for a strategic contest over the island that the authors predict could have "potentially catastrophic global consequences."

"Polycrisis" reports that both the U.S. and China are preparing for the unification attempt in 2027. The report says Beijing has instructed the People's Liberation Army to be militarily "ready for Taiwan" by then while U.S. Indo-Pacific Command anticipates a Taiwan conflict window within the same timeframe.

What makes this so urgent for the AI industry? "Polycrisis" cites the AI 2027 report that forecasts the emergence of "super coders," a class of sufficiently efficient AI that could pave the way for artificial superintelligence by 2028. IBM imagines ASI will have "highly-developed thinking skills more advanced than any human" and the Economist foresees superintelligence having access to every idea to be had- including building the best robots, rockets and reactors."

For Olsen and his team, "this accelerates the urgency for both powers to dominate computing resources and access to AI-grade chips."

The Sibylline team reckons Beijing is contemplating the blockade or quarantine of Taiwan before 2027 to choke U.S. chip access and secure its own AI supremacy. Then it can block or impede the development of ASI by other powers, namely America.

-Jules Rimmer

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October 27, 2025 04:40 ET (08:40 GMT)

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