Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Friday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO, CVE) with a C$28.00 price target after the oil producer and refiner reported third-quarter results, even as a shareholder vote on its deal to acquire MEG Energy (MEG.TO) was delayed.

"CVE printed AFFO of C$2,466MM, beating TPHe/Street C$2,180MM/C$2,288MM (on a per share basis, C$1.38 vs. TPHe/Street C$1.21/C$1.26), owing largely to US Downstream. Net of better-than-expected capex of C$1,154MM vs. TPHe/Street C$1,268MM/C$1,214MM, CVE printed better FCF vs. expectations, which totaled C$1,312MM vs. TPHe/consensus-implied C$912MM/C$1,074MM. On shareholder returns, C$918MM in buybacks ~matched pre-released commentary of ~C$900MM, contributing to total shareholder returns of C$1,274MM. At the segment level, total Upstream production was pre-released at ~832mboepd (actuals 833) with the segment a touch ahead on op margin (C$2,590MM vs. TPHe/Street C$2,563MM/C$2,529MM). Within Downstream, throughput was formally reported at 710mbopd (~712 pre-release), with the segment much stronger on op margin of C$364MM vs. TPHe/Street C$210MM/C$287MM, with the delta almost entirely driven by US downstream. On the call, we expect questions surrounding the timeline and hurdles related to the CVE/MEG transaction, with operational focus on (1) the repeatability of the US Downstream outperformance and (2) the Foster Creek optimization project and Rush Lake facility shut-ins / timeline to restart within Upstream. The MEG shareholder meeting will now take place on 11/6/25 9AM MT, with CVE/MEG disclosing an expected mid-Nov close; delay attributed by both CVE/MEG to providing time to allow MEG to respond to a regulatory inquiry (received 10/29/25, the day before the vote) requesting additional disclosure in respect of MEG's consideration of the amended terms of the transaction and related matters announced on 10/27/25. MEG's release quantifies voter support at 86% of the 92% of outstanding MEG shares (implied ~79% of total S.O.; hurdle is 2/3 of the vote) that were represented in person or by proxy," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

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