Yields on U.S. government debt have seen big swings over the past two days, as the latest round of nongovernment data on the labor market has left investors scratching their heads.

Reports from ADP Inc. and Challenger, Gray & Christmas have painted different pictures of the state of the U.S. labor market, contributing to growing uncertainty about where the economy is actually headed. That caused yields to move higher and then lower this week, while driving up a popular gauge of bond-market volatility.

That volatility gauge, known as the ICE BofAML Move Index, has jumped above 72, its highest level in about two weeks. One week ago, the index, which attempts to capture expectations about how volatile the Treasury market will be in the near term, had fallen to 65.75, its lowest end-of-day level since late 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Meanwhile, U.S. government debt rallied on Thursday, sending the benchmark 10-year yield down by 6.4 basis points to 4.09% for its largest one-day decline in three weeks, based on Dow Jones Market Data. Only a day ago, the yield had jumped by an almost equivalent magnitude of 6.6 basis points to nearly 4.16%, the highest closing level since Oct. 6.

In the bond market, prices and yields move in opposite directions. Whenever yields are falling, U.S. government debt is rallying; when yields are rising, Treasurys are selling off. Rising yields often tend to reflect rising optimism in the economic outlook, while falling yields generally capture more pessimism.

Treasury-market volatility is starting to pick up at a time when there’s a lack of official government data, and questions are being raised about where interest rates ought to be right now. In addition, there are concerns that the Federal Reserve may not be doing enough to support a labor market that appears to be slowing.

As of Thursday, “there are warning signs in the labor market that weakness is more widespread and sharper than it was expected to be,” said Tom Nakamura, a portfolio manager at AGF Investments in Toronto. Moreover, “the data may be pointing toward softer growth, and the concern is that the growth picture is turning more negative and the Fed’s policy rate is too restrictive, which would require policymakers to catch up.”

The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report revealed that layoffs surged last month to 153,074, the highest October reading since 2003, and the highest for any month in the fourth quarter since 2008. The data amplified investors’ concerns about the trajectory of the labor market. Thursday’s drop in Treasury yields was led by rates on 2-year through 10-year government maturities. Meanwhile, all three major stock indexes finished lower.

“We are likely to stay in this period of volatility” as long as the U.S. government stays in a partial government shutdown and there is no “clear visual” data, Nakamura said in a phone interview. “Some of these private data points are useful, but may not present complete pictures.”

Only a day ago, data from ADP, the nation’s largest processor of payroll checks, offered a bit of reassurance that the labor market was at least stabilizing. It showed that privately run businesses created 42,000 new jobs last month, more than economists had expected. Treasurys sold off on Wednesday, sending the policy-sensitive 2-year yield up by 4.7 basis points to 3.63%, which was its highest closing level since Sept. 29, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The 30-year yield rose by 6.5 basis points to end at its highest level since Oct. 6, at almost 4.74%.

Thursday’s drop in market-based rates was not big enough to bring the 10-year yield back down to its 3.96% closing level reached on Oct. 21, which was the lowest in more than a year.