專題報告 | 海外銅冶煉廠減停產潮中，國內煉廠如何重構價值鏈話語權？

市場資訊

11/12

（來源：中信期貨研究）中信期貨研究9月24日 Grasberg 大幅下調 2025-2026 年銅礦產量，市場對銅礦供應緊張的擔憂驟增，銅價大幅上行。據 10 月 31 日 ICSG 報告，2025 年全球銅礦產量增長率從 4 月預測的 2.3%下調至 1.4%，全球 15 家主要礦企年內產量指引增量轉負。我們梳理礦企財報並結合 CRU、Wood Mackenzie，統計得出 2025-2027...

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08:04","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2582631418","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"專題報告 | 海外銅冶煉廠減停產潮中，國內煉廠如何重構價值鏈話語權？","media":"市場資訊","content":"<div>\n<p>（來源：中信期貨研究）中信期貨研究9月24日 Grasberg 大幅下調 2025-2026 年銅礦產量，市場對銅礦供應緊張的擔憂驟增，銅價大幅上行。據 10 月 31 日 ICSG 報告，2025 年全 球銅礦產量增長率從 4 月預測的 2.3%下調至 1.4%，全球 15 家主要礦企年內產量指引增量轉負。我們梳理礦企財報並結合 CRU、Wood Mackenzie，統計得出 2025-2027...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025111209120094feae2e&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>專題報告 | 海外銅冶煉廠減停產潮中，國內煉廠如何重構價值鏈話語權？</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025111209120094feae2e&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025111209120094feae2e&s=b\">市場資訊</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0345780521.USD","symbol_name":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025111209120094feae2e&s=b","article_id":"2582631418","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025111209120094feae2e&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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年銅礦產量，市場對銅礦供應緊張的擔憂驟增，銅價大幅上行。據 10 月 31 日 ICSG 報告，2025 年全 球銅礦產量增長率從 4 月預測的 2.3%下調至 1.4%，全球 15 家主要礦企年內產量指引增量轉負。我們梳理礦企財報並結合 CRU、Wood Mackenzie，統計得出 2025-2027 年全球銅礦供應增量分別為 17 萬噸、67 萬噸、57 萬噸。根據 ICSG，2022-2024 年全球精煉銅產能利用率中樞約為 83%。然而進入 2025 年，全球銅粗煉產能快速釋放，全球精煉銅產能利用率從 83.2%快速下滑至 81.0%。我們梳理國內外計劃投產的冶煉產能，並結合目前冶煉廠公佈的減產計劃，得出 2025-2027 年全球新投產粗銅冶煉產能分別為166 萬噸、71 萬噸、53 萬噸。考慮到全球廢銅供應增量，2025-2027 年全球銅精礦需求增量分別為 65-85 萬噸、65-80 萬噸、50-65 萬噸。結合銅精礦供應增量可以看出，2026 年銅精礦供需緊張格局仍將延續，2027 年銅精礦供需緊張有望緩解。當前礦企利潤豐厚且銅價因供應緊張而上漲的背景下，冶煉廠因利潤受到明顯擠壓，生產穩定性不佳。2025 年以來極低的長單和現貨加工費使得菲律賓 PASAR、印尼 Manyar、智利 Altonorte、日本 JX 金屬、加拿大霍恩等冶煉廠相繼減產，而價格分享機制有利於保障冶煉廠利潤空間，維護礦企銅精礦銷售渠道，進而保障礦企利潤穩定。冶煉廠減產更可能發生在原料自給率偏低的企業，我們梳理半年報以及投資者調研紀要中公司對冶煉業務的表態，發現國內冶煉企業普遍無減產計劃，而是通過不斷降低成本、提高銅及副產品回收率、加大再生銅料採購量以及拓展下游高附加值產品等多種方式渡過行業寒冬。在冶煉廠暫無計劃減產，但是 2026 年銅精礦供需將更加失衡的背景下，2026 年中國冶煉廠長單加工費很可能不高於 0 美元/噸，那麼冶煉廠則面臨較大虧損。在當前極低加工費的背景下，中國冶煉廠憑藉成本優勢及各種穩生產措施，生產穩定性明顯強於海外，銅精礦需求份額進一步提升。如果國內冶煉廠齊心協力嚴控新增產能，那麼相較於海外冶煉廠更有能力向海外礦企重新協商定價模式。這會極大程度改善冶煉行業經營困境，助力國內冶煉企業行穩致遠。風險因素：宏觀政策變化","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}