By Mackenzie Tatananni

The cybersecurity stock Rubrik has lagged behind the broader market this year, but some analysts see an opportunity for it to make up lost ground.

Mizuho analysts hiked their rating on Rubrik to Outperform from Neutral and reiterated a $97 price target for the stock in a research note Monday. The company is expected to release its third-quarter earnings on Dec. 4.

The stock rose in premarket trading but then slipped back for a loss of 0.9% to $70.89 by mid morning. Coming into Monday, the shares had gained 9.5% this year. The S&P 500 is up 14% over the same period.

Mizuho noted that "despite good ongoing execution," Rubrik stock has slumped 16% since it downgraded the shares, based on valuation, on May 15.

Mizuho acknowledged that its checks on the company were limited, but said that they remain favorable, indicating continued success with partners "that have been emphasizing cyber resiliency."

Rubrik made its public trading debut in April 2024. Although the data- protection and security business is a competitive one, the company has managed to secure partnerships with big tech players like Amazon Web Services, the cloud-computing arm of Amazon.com.

Despite the stock's recent underperformance, Mizuho expects Rubrik to post annual recurring subscription revenue that tops the company's own estimates in the third quarter.

Mizuho is calling for 32% growth from the $1 billion reported last year. In the second quarter, Rubrik said subscription ARR rose 36% to $1.25 billion.

The firm also expects Rubrik to provide higher fourth-quarter guidance than Wall Street expects. The consensus call among analysts polled by FactSet is for revenue of $325 million.

"More broadly, we continue to believe RBRK's intense focus on protecting and operationalizing data, along with best-in-class ransomware defenses, have enabled it to significantly separate from most legacy and next-gen vendors in this space," Mizuho wrote.

Others were less enthusiastic about Rubrik's near-term prospects. Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh began coverage if the stock with a Perform rating on Monday, arguing that its valuation "fairly reflects growth."

Singh cited forecasts from International Data Corp. that show the amount of data in the world is growing exponentially.

"This data needs to be backed up for business continuity purposes and is driving the market for data backup and recovery software," he wrote. A sharp increase in data-security breaches has encouraged the use of cloud-based data backup and recovery solutions, which is where Rubrik fits in.

However, while the big picture may support continued growth, Singh believes the company is fairly valued. Based on his modeling, the company's enterprise value is 9.5 times the sales expected for 2026, compared with 11.1 times for infrastructure technology providers.

Rubrik also faces stiff competition from Commvault and privately owned Veeam, "with both companies rapidly expanding the security tech stack and closing the gap," the analyst wrote.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

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November 17, 2025 11:03 ET (16:03 GMT)

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