長城證券：AI巨頭上調資本開支存儲減產加劇價格上行

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2025/11/20

智通財經APP獲悉，長城證券發布研報稱，AI投資持續擴大，映射出算力需求持續強勁;在原廠減產控貨+漲價雙重驅動下，現貨Flash Wafer價格強勢上漲，服務器、手機、PC等各應用端的存儲成品全面掀起漲價潮;AI算力需求提速，帶動高多層板、HDI與IC載板等高端PCB產品量價齊升，相關產業鏈有望受益。隨着AI服務器機架功率在未來兩到三年內突破1MW，電源構架加速邁向高壓800V直流供電體系，相關...

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Wafer價格強勢上漲，服務器、手機、PC等各應用端的存儲成品全面掀起漲價潮;AI算力需求提速，帶動高多層板、HDI與IC載板等高端PCB產品量價齊升，相關產業鏈有望受益。隨着AI服務器機架功率在未來兩到三年內突破1MW，電源構架加速邁向高壓800V直流供電體系，相關元件需求持續提升。長城證券主要觀點如下：事件1)北美CSP谷歌、微軟、亞馬遜、Meta相繼披露最新業績，其中谷歌將2025年資本開支從850億美元上調至910-930億美元，微軟預計2026財年資本開支的增長率將高於2025財年，亞馬遜將2025年資本開支從年初預計的年化約1000億美元上調至1250億美元，Meta將2025年資本開支從660-720億美元上調至700-720億美元。2)據Digitimes報道稱，閃迪(SanDisk)11月大幅調漲NAND閃存合約價格，漲幅高達50%。此外，據《朝鮮日報》報道，三星電子、SK海力士、鎧俠、美光等全球主要NAND閃存製造商正在今年下半年集體削減NAND閃存供應。北美CSP持續上修資本開支，強化AI景氣度預期北美頭部CSP廠商普遍上調2025年資本開支，核心邏輯在於市場對AI算力的需求出現超預期增長，直接體現在CSP廠商高額的積壓訂單及商業合約，驗證了AI景氣持續上行。同時也反映了CSP廠商通過加大對AI算力基礎設施的持續投資，強化自身的技術壁壘，以此構建長期核心競爭力。1)谷歌：公司預計在2025年第四季度乃至2026年，市場仍將處於供需偏緊的狀態。鑑於來自雲客户的需求以及在全公司範圍內看到的增長機會，公司積極加大投資力度，將2025年全年資本開支預期上調至910-930億美元，2026年公司將顯著增加資本開支。截至25Q3末，谷歌雲積壓訂單金額為1550億美元，按年+82%，按月+46%。谷歌雲在2025年前九個月簽署的價值數十億美元的交易數量，已超過了過去兩年的總和。2)微軟：FY26Q1商業剩餘履約義務(RPO)增長超過50%，接近4000億美元，而加權平均合同期限僅為2年，訂單量、RPO到產品使用率等各項需求指標的增長速度均超出公司預期，隨着需求加速增長以及RPO金額的增加，公司正在增加對GPU和CPU的投入，預計2026財年的資本支出增長率將高於2025財年。3)亞馬遜：截至25Q3末，AWS積壓訂單已增至2000億美元，且尚未包含10月份簽署的幾筆尚未公開的新交易，且新籤合同的總金額超過整個Q3的全部成交額。公司預計2025年全年資本支出約1250億美元，並預計2026年資本支出將進一步增加。4)Meta：公司觀察到2026年算力需求超預期增長，將大力投資來滿足這些需求。預計2025年資本支出(包括融資租賃本金支付)將在700億至720億美元之間，高於此前預測的660億至720億美元，並預計2026年資本支出增幅將明顯高於2025年。存儲價格大幅上漲，頭部廠商減產加劇價格上行此次NANDFlash的價格大幅增長，一方面源於頭部存儲廠商通過主動調控供應來扭轉此前因供過於求導致的價格低迷局面，從而提升盈利能力;另一方面，受AI對儲存容量需求急速攀升的影響，存儲廠商將更多產能轉向更高階的工藝，造成傳統消費級存儲產能受到擠壓。根據Omdia的年度NAND閃存產量數據，三星電子已將今年的NAND晶圓產量目標下調至約472萬片，較去年的507萬片減少約7%。鎧俠也將年產量從去年的480萬片調減至469萬片。Omdia預計，三星和鎧俠的減產趨勢將持續到明年。SK海力士的NAND產量已從去年的約201萬片降至約180萬片，降幅約10%;美光也採取保守的供應策略，將其最大NAND生產基地新加坡Fab 7工廠的產量維持在約30萬片的較低水平。根據閃迪FY26Q1最新業績會，公司指出，NAND需求顯著超過供應，這一態勢自2025年起已顯現，並將持續貫穿整個2026年日曆年，甚至可能延續至2027年及以後。公司預計2026年數據中心市場的位元需求將按年增長40%以上，增長主要源於客户在數據中心和邊緣側尋求更高的AI推理能力，對解決AI推理存儲問題的創新方案需求激增。此外，已有客户主動尋求長期供應保障，部分已開始洽談2027年供貨協議，因此，受益AI需求持續旺盛，存儲高景氣度有望延續至2027年。風險提示：宏觀環境波動風險，AI應用不及預期，雲廠商資本開支不及預期，市場競爭加劇風險。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}

長城證券：AI巨頭上調資本開支 存儲減產加劇價格上行

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長城證券：AI巨頭上調資本開支存儲減產加劇價格上行