MW Gold may come close to $5000 in 2026 and surpass that in 2027, predicts Deutsche Bank.

By Jules Rimmer

Buying interest from central banks is here to stay, say analyst

Deutsche Bank thinks the gold price correction is largely complete and fancies higher prices in 2026 with central bank demand still the chief driver.

Gold could get close to $5000 per ounce in 2026 and beat it in 2027, predicts Deutsche Bank.

With a positioning clear-out already behind markets, Deutsche Bank's analyst Michael Hsueh thinks the bid from central banks is here to stay, and renewed demand from exchange-traded funds could see gold trade as high as $4,950/oz in 2026.

Hsueh upgraded his target for the average price of gold (GC00) next year from $4,000 to $4,450/oz, in a report that published Wednesday. For 2027, his forecast is $5,150/oz.

The price of gold has experienced a roughly 10% correction from its October peak, but has recovered half of that ground since.

The analyst observes that "gold is breaking historical norms" with the price range in 2025 the widest since 1980, when well-established concerns about inflation, fiat currency debasement and the world's unsustainable debt spiral led to repeated record highs. Gold's exceptional performance was all the more impressive given its performance wasn't simply owing to dollar DXY depreciation, he said.

Gold's performance relative to USD broad, trade-weighted index demonstrates how exceptional 2025 has been.

For 2026, Hsueh expects "official" and "inelastic" demand from the world's central banks to propel prices higher. Third-quarter central-bank demand was 220 tonnes, the third-highest on record, and markedly higher than the second quarter despite much higher prices. In the words of one central-bank manager, he quoted, the precious metal is the "ultimate protection against black swan tail risk events".

After four years of redemptions, gold ETFs returned to accumulation in 2025 and the minor daily fluctuations currently seen in net buying and selling suggests to Hsueh that the recent bout of profit-taking has probably been exhausted. In short, he reckons a $3,900/oz support level will hold.

Hsueh observes a degree of causality in gold ETF flows (in that price direction determines those inflows and outflows), and he also notes that the start of the new year tends to be when gold seasonality is most positive.

Gold seasonality favours January & February (20y &30y lookback, month-over-month %)

Lastly, Hsueh estimates that mined gold for full-year 2025, extrapolating from the first nine months of the year, will reach 3,693 tonnes which is a very modest response to the higher prices. Next year's supply he models at 3,715 tonnes, implying demand may well stay head of supply.

-Jules Rimmer

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November 26, 2025 09:39 ET (14:39 GMT)

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