U.S. stocks looked set to nudge higher in early Tuesday trading, but investors won’t get an all-clear until Bitcoin can end its losing ways.

Bitcoin might be make believe, but it’s also the center of speculative activity in financial markets. Its late autumn slump, which has lopped nearly $750 billion in value from the world’s largest cryptocurrency since its Oct. 5 peak. And Bitcoin’s 30% decline continues to ripple through broader markets as investors retreat from riskier assets, into the safety of gold and other havens.

“Bitcoin is one of several risk indicators that investors can look to,” said Jack Caffrey, portfolio manager at JPMorgan, during a CNBC interview on Tuesday. “When I see several weeks of a rallying in gold, and several weeks of pressure on bitcoin, I think that’s kind of interesting.”

And there’s little sign of renewed desire for risk in how Bitcoin has been trading. The cryptocurrency dipped briefly below the $84,000 mark on Monday, the lowest level since April, while shares in Bitcoin treasury group Strategy were pinned to the lowest levels in more than a year. Prices were firmer in early Tuesday trading, and last pegged just north of $87,000, but the overall mood remains cautious. The S&P 500, for its part, was looking at a small gain to start Tuesday trading.

Part of that concern could be linked to developments in Asia, where the Bank of Japan signaled plans to raise interest rates later this month. The move triggered a sharp spike in Japanese government bond yields and the unwinding of trades funded by the borrowing of cheap Japanese yen.

“The impact from the hawkish BOJ comments cannot be overstated,” said Mizuho’s Daniel O’Regan in a note published Monday.

“The yen carry trade has been the liquidity supplier of choice for years (decades) for assets, and crypto was no different,” he added. “Also, given its 24-hour and global nature, bitcoin is impacted by things happening in other markets all the time, not just what happens in the United States.”

Whether Bitcoin will continue to be the risk sentiment tail that wags the stock market dog remains to be seen, but for the gap that now exists before the Fed’s rate decision on Dec. 10, it’s likely to remain a daily barometer for investors looking for an end-of-year boost.

Until Bitcoin bounces, the stock market is on fragile ground.