惠譽：中國煉油利潤率有望受益於遏制惡性競爭政策

阿斯達克財經

2025/12/04

惠譽評級預期，中國旨在抑制惡性競爭的「反內卷」政策對煉油行業財務表現形成適度支持，隨着對新增產能的限制趨嚴和部分產能出清，利潤率有望企穩。不過，惠譽認為，下游石油化工生產商產能過剩將持續，因而利潤率將繼續承壓。政府最新出台的《石化化工行業穩增長工作方案(2025-2026 年)》對煉油行業設定了更嚴格的產能規定，延續此前淘汰200萬噸/年及以下常減壓裝置的目標。根據最新方案，未來新增產能規模僅可...

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competition","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00386":1,"00857":1},"content_text":"惠譽評級預期，中國旨在抑制惡性競爭的「反內卷」政策對煉油行業財務表現形成適度支持，隨着對新增產能的限制趨嚴和部分產能出清，利潤率有望企穩。不過，惠譽認為，下游石油化工生產商產能過剩將持續，因而利潤率將繼續承壓。政府最新出台的《石化化工行業穩增長工作方案(2025-2026 年)》對煉油行業設定了更嚴格的產能規定，延續此前淘汰200萬噸/年及以下常減壓裝置的目標。根據最新方案，未來新增產能規模僅可低於被淘汰產能，預示着未來幾年全國煉油產能將趨於持平甚至下降。截至2024年末，中國原油煉油產能已達9.55億噸，接近政府設定的上限(10億噸)。惠譽認為，這一上限為硬性約束，因為以往當產能接近上限時，監管部門會強制削減產能，最近一次是在2022年，彼時多家小型「地煉」被迫退出。受電動汽車普及和電氣化範圍拓寬的影響，中國汽油和柴油消費正在下降，但石化需求卻在隨經濟擴張而攀升。這促使中國國家石油公司(NOC)投資油轉化煉化產能，這或會部分抵消傳統燃料銷售走弱的影響。惠譽預期，行動方案對新增產能的控制將有助於市場集中度增強和落後產能退出，煉油利潤率將温和回升。不過，若政府產能控制成效弱於惠譽預期，則產量上升或將拖累利潤率復甦。在石油化工領域，工作方案提到要降低煤制甲醇等行業的產能過剩風險，但惠譽認為，對石化板塊大幅調整難度較大。政府或將繼續支持大型一體化項目，以填補高端石化產品的供應缺口，但這也使化解低端產能過剩面臨更大挑戰，尤其是由於該行業多元化以及產品之間的生產關聯性意味着難以精準調控單一產品供應。因此，惠譽認為「反內卷」政策在短期內對石化產品供給的影響有限。惠譽表示，近年來，乙烯、丙烯等基礎產品，以及聚乙烯(PE)、聚丙烯(PP)、聚氯乙烯(PVC)、環氧丙烷等聚合物的產能擴張步伐快於消費。這些基礎產品的出口量增速難以化解產能過剩困局，預期該板塊的低盈利能力或將持續。在惠譽授評發行人中，中國石油天然氣股份有限公司(中國石油(00857.HK) ，A/穩定）和中國石油化工股份有限公司(中國石化(00386.HK) ，A/穩定)等一體化國家石油公司有望受益於煉油板塊的行業集中度提升。其垂直一體化業務結構賦予其高度的自給自足能力和低原料成本，可以緩解在石化行業低谷期間利潤率壓力。此外，惠譽還預期，隨着近年來多項大型項目投產，2026至2030年間國家石油公司資本支出壓力將有所緩和，從而對利潤率形成支撐。前述效益應會更明顯地體現於中國石油，因為其資本支出主要集中於上游板塊，且通常隨油價走弱而同步回落。(hc/u)(港股報價延遲最少十五分鐘。沽空資料截至 2025-12-04 12:25。)AASTOCKS新聞","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}