Asia Week Ahead: PMI Surveys, Inflation Readings, and GDP Data

MT Newswires
2025/12/01

Markets head into the first week of December in Asia facing a heavy run of PMI surveys, inflation prints, GDP data, and a central-bank decision.

The week begins with a sweep of November manufacturing PMIs across the region, alongside fresh signals on prices and trade from Indonesia, South Korea and Australia.

Attention then shifts midweek to Australia's third-quarter GDP and a raft of services and composite PMIs for major Asian economies, followed by further inflation readings and trade data from Thailand and Australia, respectively.

By week's end, focus turns to the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting, and new CPI figures from Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Here's what to watch in the week ahead.

MONDAY, Dec. 1

The week kicked off with a flurry of PMI reports from S&P Global covering November manufacturing activity in China, Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, and India.

China's manufacturing sector slipped to contractionary territory in November at 49.9 from 50.6 in October due to softer business growth, according to a private reading by RatingDog, the rebranded Caixin/S&P Global China PMI.

Australia's headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global Australia Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) rose to 51.6 in November from 49.7 in October, signaling a return to growth in the manufacturing sector after a brief contraction.

Factory activity trended positively in Thailand, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia, while contracting in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines, according to S&P Global.

Statistics Indonesia released monthly inflation data, noting a 2.7% annual rise in consumer prices in November.

Trade figures from South Korea and Indonesia were also made available.

Indonesia's exports reached $24.24 billion in October, down 2.31% from a year earlier, while imports stood at $21.84 billion, down 1.15% from the same month last year.

South Korea booked a trade surplus of $9.7 billion in November, marking the highest figure since September 2017 and above October's trade surplus of $6 billion.

In Australia, the Melbourne Institute said its monthly inflation gauge rose in November, primarily influenced by higher transport-related prices.

Hong Kong is due to release its October retail sales figures later Monday.

TUESDAY, Dec. 2

South Korea will release its November inflation data, with ING forecasting a 2.6% rise in prices.

The bank's forecast was above a consensus of nine economists compiled by The Wall Street Journal who pegged the rate of inflation at 2.4% on-year--above the central bank's target of 2%.

ING said it was projecting higher inflation mainly due to low prices last year when the government temporarily cut fuel taxes.

The Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM) manufacturing PMI will be due, while markets will also be keeping an eye out for the business confidence and consumer confidence reports from Thailand and Japan.

The Philippines will publish October producer-price data, with PPI forecast to rise around 1.3%, according to Trading Economics.

WEDNESDAY, Dec. 3

Markets will turn their attention towards the third-quarter gross domestic product figures coming in from Australia.

Observers expect the Australian economy to have grown by 0.7% on the quarter, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.

"The key theme is of a broadening recovery, with business investment, residential construction and public demand all expected to rise," Westpac, which is forecasting a growth of 0.8%, said in a note.

South Korea will release its final third-quarter GDP growth rate figures.

The country's real gross domestic product increased 1.7% in the third quarter of 2025 from the same period last year, following a 0.6% annual expansion in the prior quarter, an advance estimate by the Bank of Korea indicated in October.

On the activity front, S&P Global releases November services and composite PMI reports for India, China, Japan, and Australia. It will also release PMI reports for Hong Kong and Singapore.

THURSDAY, Dec. 4

Thailand is expected to show another month of deflation when it releases its consumer price data for November, according to The Wall Street Journal. Trading Economics forecasts prices to have fallen by 0.7% year-on-year during the month, slowing from a fall of 0.76% in October.

Meanwhile, October trade data from Australia will be due. Analysts expect the country's trade surplus to have risen to AU$4.4 billion from AU$3.94 billion a month prior, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.

FRIDAY, Dec. 5

Markets will closely follow India's central bank as it convenes for its interest rate decision, with analysts broadly expecting a cut of 25 basis points to 5.25%.

With subdued inflation, growth momentum in the world's most populous country is set to moderate in the coming quarters, ING said in a preview.

ANZ Research expects downside risks to persist in the absence of a trade deal with the U.S., giving the Reserve Bank of India a "strong, justifiable case" to use the policy space provided by record-low inflation, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The Reuters Tankan Index for December, a key gauge of Japanese business confidence, will be due.

Both Taiwan and the Philippines will release November inflation data.

According to ING, prices in Taiwan should moderate during the month to 1.3% year-on-year from the 1.5% rise witnessed in October.

Despite inflation remaining below 2% since May, the island's central bank is likely to hold rates steady at its policy meeting in mid-December, ING said.

Singapore's October retail sales figures will be due the same day.

SATURDAY, Dec. 6

The week rounds off with key macro data from Vietnam.

The country is due to release its November inflation rate, as well as balance of trade, industrial production, and retail sales figures for the month.

Trading Economics expects inflation to moderate to 3.2% year-on-year from the 3.25% recorded in October. The country's trade surplus is expected to fall to $1.6 billion from $2.6 billion.

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