Kiwis Expect Home Loan Rates to Fall Further, Says ASB

MT Newswires Live
2025/12/01

Over half of the respondents to a housing confidence survey conducted in New Zealand expected to see further declines in home loan rates in the three months to October, said ASB in a Monday report.

While interest rate expectations were slightly more negative compared to the previous three months, there was a tick up in the share of respondents over the survey period expecting home loan rates to continue falling over the year ahead, to 54% in the three months to October, up from 47% in the previous survey.

The bank believes that the current official cash rate is as low as it's likely to go in this economic cycle, at 2.25%, while acknowledging the risk of another cut should economic data continue to underperform expectations.

Net 28% of respondents felt now was a good time to buy in the three months to October, the highest level since mid-2010 when the housing market was still in its post-global financial crisis funk.

House price expectations edged slightly lower in the three months to October. Net 17% of respondents expect that prices will increase over the coming year, down a touch from net 18% in the three months to July.

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