想靠自動駕駛掙錢，可沒有那麼容易

Myautotime

12/10

在AI科技日後的媒體見面會上，小鵬汽車掌門人何小鵬召集了數十家媒體，開始着力構建「小鵬汽車全面對標特斯拉」的敘事邏輯。在這次交流中，何小鵬直言，「希望藉助人形機器人、AI大模型提升公司估值區間，並在未來三年內追求更高、更重的市值目標。」在內斂含蓄的國人面前，大師兄如此直白的表達實屬罕見。不過，鑑於特斯拉目前的估值主要體現在其業界對其Robotaxi業務和FSD訂閱的美好前景上，而小鵬很難靠...

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15:42","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2590580336","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"想靠自動駕駛掙錢，可沒有那麼容易","media":"Myautotime","content":"<div>\n<p>在AI科技日後的媒體見面會上，小鵬汽車掌門人何小鵬召集了數十家媒體，開始着力構建「小鵬汽車全面對標特斯拉」的敘事邏輯。在這次交流中，何小鵬直言，「希望藉助人形機器人、AI大模型提升公司估值區間，並在未來三年內追求更高、更重的市值目標。」在內斂含蓄的國人面前，大師兄如此直白的表達實屬罕見。不過，鑑於特斯拉目前的估值主要體現在其業界對其Robotaxi業務和FSD訂閱的美好前景上，而小鵬很難靠...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251210213312a72fe5df&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>想靠自動駕駛掙錢，可沒有那麼容易</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251210213312a72fe5df&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251210213312a72fe5df&s=b\">Myautotime</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2417539215.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251210213312a72fe5df&s=b","article_id":"2590580336","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251210213312a72fe5df&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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driving","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"EVS.SI":0.6,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"09868":1.95,"XPEV":1.95},"content_text":"在AI科技日後的媒體見面會上，小鵬汽車掌門人何小鵬召集了數十家媒體，開始着力構建「小鵬汽車全面對標特斯拉」的敍事邏輯。在這次交流中，何小鵬直言，「希望藉助人形機器人、AI大模型提升公司估值區間，並在未來三年內追求更高、更重的市值目標。」在內斂含蓄的國人面前，大師兄如此直白的表達實屬罕見。不過，鑑於特斯拉目前的估值主要體現在其業界對其Robotaxi業務和FSD訂閲的美好前景上，而小鵬很難靠Robotaxi和圖靈AI智駕的訂閲付費掙錢，特斯拉的高估值大概率很難在小鵬身上覆現。根據公開消息，目前已經有媒體開始向資本市場吹風，稱小鵬正迎來從「AI到物理AI的價值重估拐點」。小鵬汽車的確已經佈局了物理AI的三大領域-自動駕駛車輛、飛行汽車和人形機器人。面向未來、仍處於吹牛階段的飛行汽車和人形機器人暫且不談，單説即將走向大規模商業化的自動駕駛，小鵬汽車就很難靠它掙錢。未來的自動駕駛汽車主要有兩大形式：面向公共出行的Robotaxi和具備L4級能力的私家車。先説Robotaxi賽道，這個市場的商業化有兩大前提。第一，在性能上，無人駕駛的服務不輸於有人駕駛；第二，在價格上，無人駕駛出租車的每公里成本要顯著低於人類駕駛。唯有展現出行服務的性價比，廣大老百姓才會用腳投票，優先選擇Robotaxi。但是，國內出行市場的單公里出行成本只有兩三塊錢，Robotaxi的出行成本要顯著低於這個價格，想象空間和利潤空間實在有限。做一個有趣的對比，在大洋彼岸的美利堅，單公里出行成本大約在二十塊錢。更加雪上加霜的是，Robotaxi這條產業鏈有出行平台、整車製造廠和自動駕駛方案供應商三大類參與者，排座座、分果果，出行平台才是老大哥。技術從來都只是滿足用户需求的手段，用户和場景才是構成商業閉環的關鍵，直接擁有用户關係和支付場景的出行平台擁有海量用户、品牌信任度、高效的調度算法和成熟的運營網絡，是直接觸達消費者的終端，作為價值實現的最終環節，理應在價值鏈中更具話語權。小鵬汽車雖然身兼整車製造廠和自動駕駛方案供應商兩大角色，但它依然不是這條產業鏈中最重要的角色。在利潤空間相當有限的本土市場上，最終的利潤分配格局只能是出行平台吃肉，自動駕駛技術供應商喝湯，最沒有差異化的整車製造商掙點辛苦錢。或者説，只有特斯拉那種三大主體角色合而為一的全鏈條模式，才有可能從魚頭吃到魚尾。出行平台已經通過前期的天量補貼擁有了海量的司機和用户，形成了強大的網絡效應。對於新玩家來説，即便Robotaxi可以通過無人駕駛消解平台巨頭在司機端的優勢。但是，由於滴滴或高德已經形成了非常高的品牌認知度，新平台必須投入巨大的營銷成本才能改變用户的行為習慣。在強大的壁壘面前，小鵬汽車選擇與高德（將來還可能會有滴滴）合作是自然而然的。當然，這也在一定程度上説明特斯拉確實非常勇悍，畢竟Uber和Lyft同樣在大漂亮的市場上形成了絕對的壟斷！前無古人、後（恐怕也）無來者的股神巴菲特在七十餘年的跌宕投資生涯中建立起了價值投資的四大核心原則：不懂不做，只在能力圈內投資；美麗的城堡，堅固的護城河；重視卓越的管理層和優秀的企業文化；堅持合適的價格和安全邊際。正是憑藉對原則的堅守，老爺子創造了六十餘年年化20%左右的複利奇蹟。也正是在這樣的原則下，巴菲特幾乎從來都不投資科技公司。巴菲特之所以迴避科技公司，一則是由於他出生於1930年代，很難在快速迭代的科技行業分析上形成自己的優勢。二則是因為老爺子早已經洞察到，科技的領先從來都不等於能夠掙錢。借鑑股神的這個洞見可以推斷，即便小鵬汽車能夠率先在圖靈AI智駕上實現L3、L4能力，它也很難依靠面向私家乘用車的圖靈AI智駕掙到錢。因為，面向私家車的自動駕駛商業模式的成功有一個核心的前提：消費者建立了為軟件服務持續付費的習慣，這也是推動自研車企從一次性硬件銷售轉向持續性軟件服務價值變現的關鍵。小鵬汽車現在無法靠圖靈AI智駕掙錢是因為它選擇了不訂閲、不付費的模式。但是，或許是出於對馬斯克的見賢思齊，本土車企掌門人的話從來都是説了不算，説變臉就變臉。而且，訂閲和付費的確是不可阻擋的大勢所趨，車企和自動駕駛方案供應商們也正在通過穩定可靠的技術冗餘、清晰的事故責任認定規則以及與之匹配的健全保險機制，逐步培育起用户對自動駕駛服務的信任感，進而養成付費的習慣。小鵬將來也很難靠圖靈AI智駕掙錢的主要原因在於，高端車用户或許願意為自動駕駛買單，畢竟節省下來的時間和精力可以賺來更多的錢，或者買來滿滿的幸福感，但這並不意味着中低端車型的消費者也願意為自動駕駛服務花錢。公開數據顯示，2025年上半年，小鵬汽車的單車平均售價僅為15.58萬元。問題就卡在這裏了。張麻子説過，誰有錢就賺誰的。把這句話做一個等價轉換，也就是説，誰有錢才能掙誰的。小鵬汽車這樣的平均售價，或許支撐不起來能大規模付費訂閲的圖靈AI智駕。自動駕駛技術正加速邁入規模化商業應用的新階段，無論在面向公眾出行的Robotaxi還是針對私家車的智能駕駛軟件付費訂閲模式，行業均已初步探索出可持續的商業閉環。然而，具體問題具體分析，作為自動駕駛的重要參與者，小鵬汽車想要憑藉上述兩條路徑實現大規模盈利的挑戰相當大，沒有盈利空間的支持，其試圖大幅度提升公司估值天花板的美好願望恐怕也要落空了。當然，上述分析不構成任何投資建議。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}