廣發年度策略 | 2026年，電子行業怎麼看？

廣發證券研究

2025/12/16

美國經濟會衰退嗎？今年聯儲局會降息嗎？我國經濟復甦現狀如何，將如何發展？我國財政政策會作何調整？曾為中國空間站「天宮四號」設計了世界第一個空間冷原子實驗平台。著有《量子大嘮嗑》《人工智能之不能》《智造中國》。近期市場關於AI產業的討論較多，我們的核心觀點是什麼？當前AI算力的競爭焦點在哪裏？AI產業鏈有哪些投資機會？存儲周期有哪些投資機會？01近期市場關於AI產業的討論較多，我們的核心觀點是什麼？...

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CAPEX則構築AI周期的基石：雲廠商、頭部企業以及主權國家在算力、數據中心和模型訓練上的資本開支具有一定剛性與延續性，為上游算力、存儲、連接、電源、散熱等環節提供了可驗證的訂單與現金流支撐。02當前AI算力的競爭焦點在哪裏？耿正：傳統通用計算Wintel生態（CPU/Windows/通用應用）底層硬件以CPU為核心，中間層為Windows操作系統，頂層應用為多樣化的通用軟件。英偉達GPU生態下，各類領先的AI模型如OpenAI、Claude等構建在英偉達的GPU和CUDA生態之上。谷歌TPU生態則是「TPU+XLA+自有AI服務」的垂直整合模式，體現谷歌為優化自身AI產品而進行的軟硬一體化專用設計。三者展現從通用計算到專用AI計算的產業演進路徑，核心競爭已轉向「專用硬件+計算平台+完整生態」的系統性競爭。03AI產業鏈有哪些投資機會？耿正：算力：GPU與ASIC共舞，生態優勢主導行業地位。國產算力從「單點突圍」轉向「系統升維」，海內外算力充分受益AI產業的發展。AI PCB：單GPU、單ASIC對應PCB價值量持續提升，國內廠商積極擴產，CCL隨PCB升級呈現高端化、多層化升級趨勢。AI存儲：Tokens的積分，AI推理中的分級存儲協同支撐高效計算，驅動AI存儲快速增長。AI電源：800V HVDC升級， SiC&GaN功率器件成長空間廣闊。端側AI：模型能力不斷提高，拓寬智能新終端使用邊界，產業鏈空間廣闊。04存儲周期有哪些投資機會？耿正：雲側和端側存儲搭載量顯著增長，存儲價格持續上漲，原廠毛利率顯著提升。海外存儲原廠資本開支進入上行區間，產能優先投向HBM，傳統DRAM和NAND投產較為謹慎。DRAM和NAND架構升級，設備需求迎來新機。4F2+CBA工藝延續主流DRAM升級趨勢；3D堆疊DRAM顯著提升帶寬指向AI推理市場；3D 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