「AI泡沫即使存在，也將繼續膨脹」

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·當前AI熱潮雖然具備歷史性泡沫的所有特徵，但這並不僅僅是簡單的「科技股炒作過熱」。AI行業的規模更有可能在繼續發展壯大的同時，實現結構性的分化式調整。2025年第四季度以來，伴隨着主要科技股的一系列回調，「AI泡沫論」甚囂塵上，引起了業界廣泛的討論。OpenAI首席執行官山姆·阿爾特曼承認，投資者作為一個整體對AI"過度興奮"。微軟聯合創始人比爾·蓋茨也將當前的AI熱潮類比為二十多年前的互聯網...

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13:17","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2592130922","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"「AI泡沫即使存在，也將繼續膨脹」","media":"澎湃新聞","content":"<div>\n<p>·當前AI熱潮雖然具備歷史性泡沫的所有特徵，但這並不僅僅是簡單的「科技股炒作過熱」。AI行業的規模更有可能在繼續發展壯大的同時，實現結構性的分化式調整。2025年第四季度以來，伴隨着主要科技股的一系列回調，「AI泡沫論」甚囂塵上，引起了業界廣泛的討論。OpenAI首席執行官山姆·阿爾特曼承認，投資者作為一個整體對AI\"過度興奮\"。微軟聯合創始人比爾·蓋茨也將當前的AI熱潮類比為二十多年前的互聯網...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251219131841a45e7dad&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>「AI泡沫即使存在，也將繼續膨脹」</title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n「AI泡沫即使存在，也將繼續膨脹」\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">澎湃新聞</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2025-12-19 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>·當前AI熱潮雖然具備歷史性泡沫的所有特徵，但這並不僅僅是簡單的「科技股炒作過熱」。AI行業的規模更有可能在繼續發展壯大的同時，實現結構性的分化式調整。2025年第四季度以來，伴隨着主要科技股的一系列回調，「AI泡沫論」甚囂塵上，引起了業界廣泛的討論。OpenAI首席執行官山姆·阿爾特曼承認，投資者作為一個整體對AI\"過度興奮\"。微軟聯合創始人比爾·蓋茨也將當前的AI熱潮類比為二十多年前的互聯網...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251219131841a45e7dad&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251219131841a45e7dad&s=b\">澎湃新聞</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0784384876.USD","symbol_name":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 USD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251219131841a45e7dad&s=b","article_id":"2592130922","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251219131841a45e7dad&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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Kirsch）在其2019年出版的著作《泡沫與崩盤：技術創新的繁榮與蕭條》中，提出了一個評估技術泡沫的四因素框架。這個框架被用來分析從電氣照明到航空業再到互聯網的歷史性技術熱潮，並將其在0到8分的量表上進行排名。這四個因素分別是：不確定性。這是技術泡沫的基石。它指的是圍繞一項創新如何轉化為實際業務、將取代價值鏈的哪些部分、競爭者數量以及實現預期成果所需時間的模糊性。當一項技術的商業價值和變現模式極度模糊時，投機空間就會急劇擴大。AI技術的商業變現模式模糊，成本目前高於客户支付的費用，用户增長即意味着虧損擴大。MIT研究顯示，95%採納生成式AI的公司尚未從中獲利，只有個位數到低兩位數的企業看到了大規模的持續投資回報率。估值最高的AI獨角獸OpenAI推銷「先構建通用智能（AGI），再談盈利」的敍事。這種模式在財務上表現為巨大虧損。OpenAI最新一季度的虧損約115億美元，而其2025年整年的預計營收僅為130億美元。OpenAI預計未來幾年將持續出現鉅額年度虧損，2028年的營運虧損將高達740億美元，預計要到2030年才會轉正，到那時其年營收將達到2000億美元，並在2029或2030年開始現金流轉正。在長期商業模式尚未明確的情況下，這種依賴股東補貼用户的模式不可持續。投資規模與實際收入之間存在巨大缺口。大型科技公司預計到2028年將投入高達3萬億美元用於AI基礎設施建設，然而目前AI的年收入僅約為500億美元。摩根大通估算，要讓這些投資獲得10%的回報，AI每年需要創造6500億美元的收入——是當前水平的13倍。純粹投資標的盛行。這是指那些命運與特定創新緊密捆綁的公司，它們是將宏大敍事轉化為實質性投資的核心載體。在歷史上的每一次技術泡沫中，都會湧現出一批這樣的公司，吸引投資者將賭注押在某項技術的成功上。二級市場資金過度集中於英偉達等「純粹」標的。一級市場則超過一半的風險投資流向AI公司。即使無清晰盈利模式，初創公司估值亦能短期翻倍。OpenAI和Anthropic的估值已分別飆升至5000億美元和3500億美元。AI公司的估值已經反彈並超過了2020年至2022年零利率政策時期科技泡沫的價格。新手投資者。大量缺乏經驗的投資者湧入市場，將資金投入到他們並不真正理解的領域，這顯著增強了泡沫膨脹的能力。當投資門檻降低、參與變得容易時，這種力量會被進一步放大。英偉達成為散户交易量最大的單一股票。大批缺乏專業定價能力的散户湧入，加劇了市場的非理性繁榮。鑑於AI是一個如此新且不確定的領域，從某種意義上説，每個人在AI領域都是「新手投資者」，因為沒有人確切知道這項技術將如何演變，即便是專業投資機構的基金經理也面臨知識盲區。大批散户投資者正通過E-Trade和Robinhood等應用向AI領域注入資金，將積蓄投入到對\"通用超級智能\"的模糊承諾中。強大的敍事協調。強大的敍事能夠協調和統一投資者的信念，將投資潛力推向\"無限\"的境界。故事講得越好、越宏大、越令人激動，泡沫膨脹的動力就越強。技術突破提供了敍事的基礎，「Scaling Law」（規模定律）為不計成本的投資提供了理論依據。大語言模型展示出的湧現能力——即在規模擴大後突然出現的、訓練時未明確教授的新能力——讓人們開始相信，只要持續擴大模型規模和訓練數據，就可能實現通用人工智能。AI對投資者的承諾是近乎無限的，甚至是\"不可知\"的。硅谷敍事認為AI是解決所有問題的關鍵，構建了「AGI即將到來」的必然性敍事——它將能夠完成人類幾乎所有的任務，徹底改變所有行業。這種敍事將AI的潛力推向了極致，聲稱AI將治癒癌症、解決氣候變化，取代企業的各類人員——從職能人員到CEO，甚至創造一個「數字上帝」，這種信仰能夠證明任何金額的支出都是合理的。在大國間的科技競爭中，AI被拔高到了戰略核心級別的地位。這種宏大敍事，使得任何高估值似乎都變得合理，成功協調了全球投資者的信念。將這個框架應用於當前的生成式AI熱潮時，四個標準都符合現實情況，即使它不是滿分8分，它也完全具備一個歷史性泡沫的所有特徵。在金融意義上，「泡沫」並不等同於「騙局」或「無價值」。它更接近一個結構描述：資產價格明顯偏離可合理解釋的長期現金流，並由孖展、預期與競爭行為形成自我強化。所以，討論AI泡沫並不是要判斷AI能不能用——AI當然能用，而且會越來越能用。真正需要回答的是：現在付出的價格，是否過早地購買了過長週期的未來？擴張速度是否顯著快於兑現速度？當孖展條件變化、預期回調時，產業鏈條會以什麼方式出清？2、泡沫延續的邏輯對於科技巨頭們來説，越智能的模型越具有商業價值，這離不開持續加碼算力建設。然而，若前沿模型在推理能力上的提升與算力投入之間的投入產出比下降，鉅額投資將面臨折舊危機。如果AI相關的垂直軟件系統和企業應用軟件到2027年無法實現收入增長和盈利能力，股東可能會迫使五大超大規模雲服務商削減資本開支。對於投資機構和專業投資者，避免參與這場泡沫甚至比參與泡沫破裂的風險更大。如果基金經理迴避AI股票導致回報落後於基準，他們可能會被解僱。在華爾街，FOMO（\"害怕錯過機會\"）的情緒已經壓倒了對投資泡沫的擔憂。與2000年互聯網泡沫不同，當今AI浪潮的核心驅動力——「美股七雄」等大型科技公司擁有龐大的營收和健康的現金儲備。它們正用自己的自由現金流來資助AI基礎設施建設，這與當年許多互聯網初創公司負債累累、商業模式脆弱的情況形成了鮮明對比。這讓許多投資者相信「這次不同」。「理性泡沫」的概念正是在這一背景下被提出：資產價格被推高到遠超基本價值的水平，但參與者仍然持續買入，因為他們理性地預期價格還會繼續上漲，且錯失機會的風險大於過度投資的風險。Meta首席執行官馬克·扎克伯格就表示，即使最終在AI上花費了數千億美元，如果錯失機會，風險會更高。有人認為AI的採用速度是早期互聯網接入速度的15 到60 倍。Lightspeed Venture Partners 的聯合創始人認為，當前週期的營收增長規模「比以往任何週期都呈指數級增長」。即使許多投資是「死衚衕」，長期來看，這項技術創造的淨經濟價值將是巨大的，就像互聯網最終被證明非常有價值一樣。3、市場對AI泡沫的審視擁護AI投資的樂觀者認為，當前的投資與投機性的互聯網泡沫時代有本質區別。目前的超大規模雲服務商資本支出是以廣泛的客户需求為基礎，並有創紀錄的運營現金流作為支撐的。投資的目標是追求投資回報（ROI）、利潤率擴張和收入增長，而非追求「通用人工智能」的理論突破。對處理器的需求是沒有上限的，僅受限於用户嘗試解決的問題的複雜性。只要提供更多計算能力，AI就會變得更智能、更有用。這種論述為持續的鉅額投資提供了理論正當性。基金經理和資產配置者則沒這麼有「格局」，他們對公司過度投資AI而潛在回報可能無法達標感到「緊張」。這些擔憂很可能被AI數據中心投資的規模所放大——這些是會隨時間貶值的昂貴基礎設施。美國銀行最新的基金經理調查發現，多數基金經理認為企業在資本支出上投入過多，應該改善資產負債表。這是自2005年以來首次出現多數基金經理認為公司資本支出過高的情況。另外值得注意的是債務風險的擴散，孖展結構正在發生深刻變化。債券資產和私募股權機構已擴大了在AI領域的投資，以幫助科技巨頭孖展。Meta和Blue Owl成立了一家270億美元的合資企業，用於建設Meta在路易斯安那州的數據中心。其中一部分資金將由Blue Owl發行給PIMCO和其他債券投資者的債務提供。這樣的操作將建設數據中心的鉅額債務結構化到資產負債表之外。風險被轉移到了私募信貸市場。摩根大通估計，整個AI基礎設施建設需要約5萬億美元，而當前孖展渠道仍存在1.4萬億美元的缺口，需要在未來五年通過私募信貸或政府支出來填補。這意味着AI泡沫的風險已經超越了傳統的股權投機，開始滲透到債券市場和信用體系。一旦AI商業化回報不及預期，違約風險將波及養老金、共同基金等普通投資者的資產甲骨文有可能成為AI泡沫中第一個「爆雷」的科技巨頭。在宣佈與OpenAI簽訂3000億美元AI計算服務合同後，甲骨文股價曾一度飆升，市值接近1萬億美元。然而此後三個月，該公司股價暴跌32%，成為標普500指數中表現第三差的股票。自2025年9月以來，甲骨文（Oracle）、CoreWeave等公司的信用違約互換（CDS）交易量激增90%。投資者開始對沖AI基建巨頭的違約風險。甲骨文為履行OpenAI合同大舉借債購買芯片，未償債務超1000億美元，面臨評級機構下調至「垃圾債」的風險。其5230億美元的合同收入儲備（RPO）高度依賴OpenAI。甲骨文的命運在很大程度上被綁定在一家仍在鉅額虧損的初創公司身上，若OpenAI商業化受阻，甲骨文將面臨鉅額壞賬。近期甲骨文宣佈創紀錄資本支出後股價應聲大跌，表明市場已不再獎勵擴張，而更看重AI投資的收益兑現。另一個引起市場警覺的問題是AI芯片的經濟壽命正在急劇縮短。英偉達等芯片製造商正以比以往更快的速度推出性能更強的處理器。Rubin架構的性能將是Blackwell的四倍。這意味着上一代芯片在三到四年內就會損失大部分市場價值。批評者認為，科技公司通過將AI芯片的「有用壽命」延長到五到六年（而非更貼合實際的兩到三年）來降低年度折舊費用，這是一種人為誇大當前利潤的會計手段。如果這些芯片的實際壽命只有兩到三年，公司可能面臨數十億美元的鉅額資產減記。4、技術在進步，泡沫依然存在面對「AI泡沫」的論斷，許多人會提出一個直覺性的反駁：AI技術確實驚豔並且還在不斷進步，產品也確實在創造價值。對AI的需求也是真實的，ChatGPT每週用户已超過8億，AI正在改變我們工作、學習和生活的方式。如果需求是真實的、技術是有價值的，我們能説它存在泡沫嗎？答案是：技術進步和泡沫並不矛盾。歷史上許多泡沫都是由具有真正顛覆性價值的技術驅動的。泡沫的存在反映的不是技術是否會成功，而是市場價格對這種成功預期的過度提前和極度誇大。互聯網泡沫最終給世界留下了現代互聯網，亞馬遜和谷歌也從崩盤中崛起，證明了這項技術的價值是巨大的。鐵路泡沫最終構建了英國的鐵路骨幹網絡，儘管許多投資者損失了金錢。航空業在1929年泡沫破裂，但飛機最終徹底改變了人類的交通方式。泡沫的本質在於市場價格與當前可實現價值的脱節，而不是技術的長期價值不足。正如比爾·蓋茨所言，互聯網泡沫破裂後，技術留下了巨大的淨價值，但許多公司最終仍然被高估並失敗。AI的價值同樣是「極其高昂」的，但這並不意味着當前的定價是合理的。按照股票估值來看，幾乎所有方法都顯示，美國股票看起來是自互聯網泡沫以來最昂貴的。預期市盈率、股價現金流比、「聯儲局模型」（Fed model）計算的股票相對於債券的額外回報，以及週期性調整市盈率，都強烈顯示股票估值高昂。技術的實用性證明了長期價值，但無法否定金融層面的投機狂熱。個人用户能夠以低廉的成本使用AI服務，很大程度上是因為股東在補貼這些服務——提供AI服務的成本往往高於客户支付的費用。目前AI服務定價遠低於生產成本，導致AI業務出現鉅額虧損，這種模式能夠持續多久，取決於投資者的耐心和資金的充裕程度。5、中美科技競爭如何影響AI泡沫的發展地緣政治競爭為AI泡沫提供了最強大的「必然性敍事」。當前AI行業領導者推動的宏大敍事中，明確包含了「必須在AGI競賽中擊敗對手」的論調，為不計成本的鉅額投入提供了正當性。儘管AI熱潮最初是由技術突破驅動的「技術火花」，但政府的積極介入正在成為添加燃料的「政治火花」。美國政府的政策優先事項之一就是拆除針對AI的監管障礙，並與中國競爭以實現「全球統治」。在地緣政治競爭的背景下，科技巨頭和投資者擔心如果他們不積極提前部署算力，就有被競爭對手超越或淘汰的風險。這種害怕錯過機會的情緒與國家戰略需求綁定，使得投資加速。即使從純粹的商業回報角度看投資存在問題，國家層面的戰略需求也會繼續推動資金涌入。與此同時，中國公司正在以更低的成本將具有競爭力的AI模型推向市場，威脅到了硅谷在某些市場上的定價權。DeepSeek的成功曾引發美國科技股出現大幅拋售，凸顯了低成本競爭對高估值泡沫的結構性衝擊風險。6、什麼情況下，AI泡沫不存在？那麼在什麼情況下，AI泡沫會被「證偽」？換言之，如何證明「這一次確實不同」——AI企業的價值如果持續成長，當前的高估值是對未來價值的合理預判，而非投機泡沫。第一，核心企業必須展現出穩健的財務基礎和抗風險能力。當前AI熱潮與歷史泡沫最大的結構性差異，在於領軍企業的財務健康狀況。像微軟、谷歌和亞馬遜這樣的巨頭必須繼續用其龐大的營收流和健康的現金儲備來資助AI基礎設施建設，依靠自由現金流而非債務擴張。同時，它們的核心業務必須持續盈利以對沖AI投資風險。對於像英偉達這樣的純粹投資標的，其目前約三十倍的預期市盈率遠低於互聯網泡沫頂峯時期思科的兩百倍，但這個估值仍需通過持續\"超出預期\"的業績來證明其合理性。第二，生產力提升必須得到迅速和廣泛的兑現。當前市場對AI價值的懷疑核心在於投資規模與實際收入之間的巨大缺口。用户的一大疑慮在於AI生成的低質量內容（Workslop）可能導致企業陷入「平庸陷阱」，即生產力表面提升但質量下降。AI必須從「前景」轉變為「現實」，克服「生產力J型曲線」效應——新技術從發明到顯著提升生產力往往存在較長時滯（如電力革命耗費了30年），能夠被廣泛應用並帶來實際的生產力飛躍。AI模型需要解決其成本高昂、容易「產生幻覺」以及造成低質量內容氾濫的問題。投資者的焦點則需要從遙遠的AGI宏大敍事，轉向AI在特定領域創造立竿見影價值的「人工專業智能」。第三，價值鏈競爭必須確保利潤分佈健康。如果少數幾家大廠壟斷了所有價值，並利用其主導地位吞噬下游應用，AI領域將陷入生態失衡，泡沫會在應用端先破裂。要使整個AI生態系統健康成長，依賴大型語言模型的應用開發者需要通過專業化數據、定製化工具和差異化服務建立起競爭壁壘。如果基礎模型提供商之間的技術差異縮小，基礎模型趨向商品化，大部分價值將流向使用模型的軟件和服務供應商，巨頭之間的激烈競爭將迫使所有參與者專注於效率和商業化。第四，孖展結構必須去風險化，避免系統性債務風險。歷史上的泡沫破裂之所以具有破壞性，是因為債務而非單純的股權損失。儘管大型科技公司財務穩健，但它們越來越多地依賴發債和資產負債表外孖展來建設數據中心。如果AI投資最終失敗導致大規模債務違約，風險將擴散到更廣泛的金融領域。因此，在技術價值被兑現之前，支撐這場軍備競賽的金融結構不能先垮掉。AI企業建設算力所產生的債務需要擁有穩健的資金支持，確保即使AI盈利不如預期，資產也能被擔保。此外，與互聯網泡沫中鋪設的光纖電纜相比，AI芯片等資本投入的折舊速度更快，AI硬件的「保質期」必須能夠通過持續的技術創新得到延長。第五，市場情緒與投資行為必須保持「理性興奮」。如果市場認為AI的價值將不斷成長，投資者就必須避免進入「非理性繁榮」階段。風險資本家本·霍洛維茨指出，當前市場不處於徹底泡沫的最明顯信號就是「每個人都在談論泡沫」。只要投資者和分析師持續質疑估值和盈利能力，市場就會保持一種自我修正的機制，避免全面失控。只有當「最後一個批評者都承認自己錯了」並全面湧入時，真正的泡沫才會破裂。投資者需要從當前忽略自由現金流和短期收入預測的行為模式中走出來，開始更嚴肅地衡量AI公司在未來幾年內的實際盈利能力。第六，物理基礎設施能夠滿足AI產業需求。缺電可能比缺錢更早刺破泡沫。微軟等巨頭已出現因電力容量不足，導致昂貴的GPU芯片被迫閒置在倉庫中的情況。美國電網併網排隊需3-5年。若電力供應和液冷技術不能在2026年前突破，數萬億GPU將面臨閒置風險。7、 如果AI泡沫破裂美國大舉押注AGI，AI已成為美國經濟增長的支柱。若AGI未如期爆發，美國將面對產業危機和失業危機風險。AI相關投資在2025年上半年貢獻了近一半的美國GDP增長。美國家庭財富的21%直接來自股票，AI股貢獻了近期增長的一半。若泡沫破裂可能導致家庭淨資產縮水8%，消費支出可能劇減（約GDP的1.6%），足以引發衰退。因此，維持AI產業已成為維持經濟增長的政治與經濟任務。AI相關投資對美國經濟增長產生了重要支撐，幫助緩衝了關税等衝擊的影響。如果沒有AI帶來的增長，美國經濟增速可能更為緩慢，並受到關税威脅和地緣政治摩擦的困擾。如果AI泡沫破裂導致美國經濟陷入衰退，隨之而來的美國需求疲軟將蔓延到歐洲和中國。而即使泡沫破裂，由於其槓桿主要集中在私人股權和企業債券，而不是傳統商業銀行的資產負債表上，美股七雄等核心科技巨頭的財務韌性強，可以吸收部分損失，泡沫破裂的後果將主要體現在資產價格的回調、經濟增速的下滑，而不至於引起系統性金融危機。8、展望2026：即使有泡沫，AI牛市不會崩盤宏觀政策層面，聯儲局進入降息週期，預計將在2026年繼續降息，這種寬鬆的貨幣環境為孖展活動提供了有利的宏觀環境，將有助於支撐資產估值繼續上升，與歷史上泡沫破裂前夕的快速收緊形成鮮明對比。而在全球資本市場，AI科技是目前最集中的投資方向，除了AI之外，投資者似乎找不到別的選擇。與歷史上許多投機泡沫不同，AI的需求是真實且旺盛的。根據OpenRouter平台的數據，Token消耗量在一年內增長了14.5倍，遠超基礎設施的投入速度。頭部科技巨頭的營收和利潤增長表現持續超預期，即使未能填平與投資規模之間的鴻溝，也為市場情緒提供了持續的燃料。這些因素結合前文中提到的國家戰略的背書，和經濟對AI的依賴，共同構成了這場泡沫繼續膨脹的結構性力量。AI牛市將呈現結構分化的增長特徵。即使AI行業的整體規模預計仍將持續增長，一些此前被過度炒作的子行業可能由於商業模式無法兑現、市場需求不足、同質化競爭等原因面臨洗牌，如語音轉錄、AI編程、聊天伴侶。應用層面的競爭焦點將轉向具有明確ROI的垂直解決方案，如藥物研發、企業解決方案、AI數據管理。AI智能體賽道也將迎來整合潮。2026年的市場邏輯將從「講故事」轉向「拼資金效率」和「拼物理落地」。對於AI產業來説，解決電力問題、填補資金缺口、找到產品的盈利模式將至關重要。AI泡沫的存在也許是個學術事實，但泡沫的持續膨脹將是個市場現實。泡沫是技術革命的代價，也是資本推動創新的機制。問題不僅在於泡沫是否會破裂，更在於破裂後會留下多少價值，以及誰將在這場「去偽存真」的進程中脱穎而出。（作者滕斌聖，系長江商學院戰略學教授，戰略研究副院長，新生代獨角獸全球生態體系研究中心主任；作者何澗石，系長江商學院新生代獨角獸全球生態體系研究中心研究員）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}