Shares of space startup Intuitive Machines LUNR.O soared 20% at $13 in morning trading after KeyBanc Capital Markets initiates coverage.

Brokerage rates stock “overweight” and sets PT at $20.

Brokerage calls LUNR a front-runner for NASA’s Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) award, a program with a potential $4.6 bln ceiling over 10 years; first vehicle delivery could bring $600–$800 mln revenue.

Says recent $800 mln acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems adds satellite manufacturing and defense/data capabilities.

Also initiates "overweight" coverage on other aerospace & defense names including AeroVironment AVAV.O, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions KTOS.O and Karman Holdings KRMN.K.

As of last close, LUNR down 40.2% YTD.