CEE MARKETS-Forint and crown ease from highs

Reuters
01/06
CEE MARKETS-Forint and crown ease from highs

Events in Venezuela could support emerging market currencies, traders say

Hungarian forint hit 22-month high in December

Polish and Romanian markets closed for public holiday

By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint eased on Tuesday and the Czech crown held steady, while both currencies in sight of multi-year highs hit last month.

The U.S. dollar ticked lower for a second day against major peers on Tuesday as markets continued to process the implications of U.S. military action in Venezuela.

For emerging markets, traders said any bullish impact was offset by uncertainty.

"Markets view the events in Venezuela as positive, but it is important that we quickly see where things will go from here. Uncertainty does not help," a foreign exchange trader in Budapest said.

"As to the forint, nothing really changed... it trades in the 382.50-386 range depending on world events, interest or fresh data," the trader said.

By 0938 GMT, the forint EURHUF= had eased 0.3% to trade at 385.00 per euro.

Local markets in Poland and Romania were closed for a holiday, while stock indices in Prague .PX and Budapest .BUX gained.

IMPACT ON OIL SUPPLIES WILL TAKE TIME

All markets have turned their focus to prices of oil, after U.S. President Donald Trump said the country's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would allow accelerated development of the country's huge oil reserves.

The future prospect of more oil to add to an already well-supplied market left oil prices little-changed on Tuesday, although ultimately, cheaper oil could ease inflation.

The Hungarian currency has been sustained by an interest rate of 6.5%, which makes it attractive for carry trade transactions and propelled it to a 22-month high on December 3.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was unmoved on Tuesday, trading at 24.194 to the euro, off a 27-month high of 24.10 hit in December.

"We see room for further slight strengthening of the crown in 2026. Similar to last year, three important factors should play into its hands: a hawkish CNB, strong domestic macro fundamentals and the continued weakening of the US dollar," CSOB wrote in a note.

"We expect the exchange rate to be around 23.80 EUR/CZK by the end of next year," CSOB analysts added.

The Czech central bank paused an easing cycle after its last cut in May last year took the rate to 3.5%. Analysts expected attention to turn to local data this week as the market assesses the likelihood of a rate move this year. December inflation data is scheduled to be published on Wednesday.

On bond markets, the Czech finance ministry was expected to release 2025 budget data and its outlook for 2026 as a change in government raises the chance of some fiscal loosening. Czech fiscal deficits have fallen below the EU-mandated 3% of GDP ceiling since 2024 and the new government has said it would keep to EU rules.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1038 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.1940

24.1910

-0.01%

-0.11%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

385.0000

383.9000

-0.29%

-0.16%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2140

4.2110

-0.07%

+0.04%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0900

5.0894

-0.01%

+0.08%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.2000

117.3000

+0.09%

+0.09%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Prague

.PX

2736.60

2714.0600

+0.83%

+1.90%

Budapest

.BUX

114423.67

113182.33

+1.10%

+3.05%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4030

-0.0510

+129bps

-4bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8740

-0.0500

+143bps

-3bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.4240

-0.0410

+157bps

-2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

3.8700

-0.0010

+175bps

+1bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.6060

0.0000

+217bps

+2bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.1810

0.0000

+232bps

+2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.45

3.40

3.40

3.52

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

3.56

3.37

3.33

3.95

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

(Reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; editing by Barbara Lewis)

((komuves.anita@thomsonreuters.com)(+36 70 795 8815))

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