Ferrari (RACE) is approaching peak negative sentiment, with revised consensus estimates leaving limited room for near-term downside risk, UBS Securities said in a Friday note.

The Italian carmaker is expected to close out 2025 without any significant surprises. The brokerage said in a Friday note that simply meeting expectations could ease concerns about its business model and support confidence in its long-term story, potentially aiding a stock rerating from current lows.

UBS forecasts group organic sales growth of around 4% in Q4, with Cars & Spare Parts up 2% and only a limited contribution from F80 deliveries. Volumes are expected to decline about 2%, while the Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand segments are projected to maintain double-digit growth.

The investment firm expects growth to be weighted toward the second half, with H1 sales projected to rise around 3%.

Investors will be watching developments in the US market, particularly residual values and order trends. They will also focus on quarterly F80 deliveries in 2026, Ferrari's ability to deliver growth above mid-single-digit levels beyond 2026 and updates on its first electric vehicle, including pricing, driving experience and engine sound.

The brokerage also highlighted personalisation trends, which currently account for about 19% of sales in its medium-term guidance, as a potential focus for the market.

UBS maintained its buy rating on Ferrari and lowered its price target to $555 from $563.

Shares of Ferrari were up 2.1% in recent trading.

Price: 378.48, Change: +7.63, Percent Change: +2.06