提問 2026： AI 加速，請繫好安全帶

藍洞商業

01/11

站在 2025 年的歲末回望，不是所有事情都離不開 AI，但人工智能還是 2026 年確定性的方向，真正的影響將在未來一年繼續顯現。提前拉開 2026 年這場大戲序幕的，當然要屬 Meta 以超過 20 億美元收購了 AI 創業公司 Manus，這是科技巨頭對 AI 智能體志在必得的野心，更是一場 AI 競逐賽中對人才的渴望和焦慮，它為全球科技發展史寫下了濃墨重彩的一筆。如何前瞻 2026 年的...

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09:51","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2602340925","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"提問 2026： AI 加速，請繫好安全帶","media":"藍洞商業","content":"<div>\n<p>站在 2025 年的歲末回望，不是所有事情都離不開 AI，但人工智能還是 2026 年確定性的方向，真正的影響將在未來一年繼續顯現。提前拉開 2026 年這場大戲序幕的，當然要屬 Meta 以超過 20 億美元收購了 AI 創業公司 Manus，這是科技巨頭對 AI 智能體志在必得的野心，更是一場 AI 競逐賽中對人才的渴望和焦慮，它為全球科技發展史寫下了濃墨重彩的一筆。如何前瞻 2026 年的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260111095120a70c5489&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提問 2026： AI 加速，請繫好安全帶</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260111095120a70c5489&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260111095120a70c5489&s=b\">藍洞商業</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4592","symbol_name":"伊斯蘭概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260111095120a70c5489&s=b","article_id":"2602340925","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260111095120a70c5489&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, 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belt","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"09868":0.9,"03145":0.6,"TSM":0.9,"META":1.86,"06082":0.9,"AAPL":1.88,"UFO":0.6,"AMZN":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"09880":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"MACW.SI":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"站在 2025 年的歲末回望，不是所有事情都離不開 AI，但人工智能還是 2026 年確定性的方向，真正的影響將在未來一年繼續顯現。提前拉開 2026 年這場大戲序幕的，當然要屬 Meta 以超過 20 億美元收購了 AI 創業公司 Manus，這是科技巨頭對 AI 智能體志在必得的野心，更是一場 AI 競逐賽中對人才的渴望和焦慮，它為全球科技發展史寫下了濃墨重彩的一筆。如何前瞻 2026 年的科技和人工智能？從《華爾街日報》關注的可摺疊 iPhone 和更聰明的 Siri，到《福布斯》筆下可能告別 CEO 職位的奧爾特曼，再到《連線》預警的行業陣痛，2026 年的科技畫像並不是單一顏色的。它既有「大力出奇跡」後的漸進式改良，也有地緣博弈下芯片產業的奮起直追，更有馬斯克那些即便被懷疑也從未停止的宏大實驗。樂觀的一面，是因為 AI 作為一種「無限心智」，正以前所未有的速度「着陸」到我們的生活場景；保留餘地的一面，是因為在算法編織的未來裏，如何定義人類自身的價值，才是一道每個人真正面臨的必答題。這提醒我們，享受科技加速度的同時，別忘了繫好安全帶。正如《經濟學人》發出的關鍵一問，人工智能所引發的熱潮和期望是前所未有的，其真正的影響仍然不明朗。人工智能會帶來經濟復甦、金融崩潰、社會反彈，還是三者的某種組合？預測未來是為未來做好準備，你對 2026 年的期待是什麼？1更聰明的 iPhone 會來嗎？《華爾街日報》把第一個科技領域預測給了蘋果的 Siri，因為今年 6 月蘋果軟件工程高級副總裁克雷格·費德里吉告訴他們，公司正在基於新的底層架構重建 Siri，以提升其人工智能水平。半年後，老將退位，曾在谷歌負責 Gemini 聊天機器人項目、後加入微軟的阿馬爾·蘇布拉馬尼亞加入蘋果公司，擔任人工智能副總裁。另外，蘋果公司也在測試谷歌 Gemini 的一個版本，用於驅動新一代 Siri。《華爾街日報》對 2026 年的預測，還包括蘋果的首款摺疊手機。這款產品預計將於 2026 年秋季與 iPhone 18 系列一同發布，將採用書本式設計，配備多個攝像頭，並使用 Touch ID 而非 Face ID ，而且預期價格超過 2000 美元，在此之前，收好你的錢包。2山姆·奧爾特曼會卸任 OpenAI CEO ？《福布斯》大膽猜測：奧爾特曼不再是領導公司邁向上市公司的最佳人選。《福布斯》甚至預言了奧爾特曼卸任的方式：與 2023 年 11 月 OpenAI 董事會突然解僱奧爾特曼震驚世界的戲劇性事件不同，這次的人事變動將會經過精心策劃。它將被描繪成奧爾特曼的個人決定，他將按照自己的意願宣佈這一消息。《福布斯》的預測理由，包括谷歌 Gemini 蠶食 ChatGPT 的市場，而且對手 Anthropic 計劃最早於 2026 年上市，這都將給 OpenAI 帶來更大的上市壓力，此外，奧爾特曼宣佈 OpenAI 聘請 Instacart 首席執行官菲吉·西莫擔任「應用 CEO 」，因此，OpenAI 下一任 CEO 可能就是菲吉·西莫。《福布斯》特別明確的是，山姆·奧爾特曼不會就此淡出人們的視線。未來很多年，他仍將在芯片、數據中心、太空、腦機接口等領域開展眾多項目。3大模型公司上市潮來臨？這是已經上演的故事，智譜、MiniMax（稀宇科技）兩家公司已經開啓了港交所的上市路，這是國內 AI 大模型「六小虎」中率先跑出的兩家，他們一個深耕 B 端市場，毛利率高達 50%，客户主要是大型政企，而另外一個則是 C 端突圍，超 70% 收入來自海外。大模型上市潮開啓，本質上是因為它們存在巨大的資金需求，不得不進入公開市場，募集更多的股權和債務孖展。《福布斯》認為，估值 3000 億美元的 Anthropic 公開上市，是2026 年最受期待的IPO之一。2025 年，Anthropic 的年度經常性收入（ARR）從 10 億美元增長至 90 億美元。與此同時，OpenAI 的ARR 將從 60 億美元增長到 200 億美元。4AGI（通用人工智能）不再流行？過去，通用人工智能被描述為一種超越人類水平的存在，它能在所有任務中都能完美展現自己。但如今，人們已經不再期待這種徹底的顛覆，而是用一種更務實的眼光看待人工智能。模型端， GPT-5和 Gemini 3 等大模型，相比其前代產品都取得了漸進式的改進。智能體雖然展現出巨大的潛力，但仍缺乏足夠的能力和可靠性來實現廣泛應用。機器人學和生物學等領域的基礎模型尚未成熟，無法投入實際應用。所以《福布斯》認為，人工智能生態系統中逐漸形成一種共識：超級人工智能可能並非近在眼前——更重要的是，它或許並沒有那麼重要，這項技術已經非常強大。在通用人工智能到來之前，隨着人工智能重塑各行各業和組織，數萬億美元的價值創造機會已經唾手可得。與此同時，《經濟學人》認為，硅谷的風險投資家、企業家和科技巨頭們都聚焦於一點：如何加快企業採用人工智能的速度。如果企業能夠將人工智能融入運營並提高生產力，就能從中獲利頗豐，因此，2026 年需要關注的一個關鍵指標，將是正式採用人工智能的速度，以及這些努力的成功程度。關於通用人工智能（AGI）的討論在 2026 年不會完全消失，但它會變得不那麼流行了。5什麼才是 AI 最廣泛的「身體」？2026 年會是「硬件+AI融合」的商用爆發年， AI 玩具開啓熱賣、AI眼鏡百鏡大戰、人形機器人展示比賽……各種各樣的智能產品都在 AI 帶動下增長，都是在為 AI 找到身體——把 AI 從螢幕中、對話框中解放出來，應用到自己的身邊具體場景中。豆包 AI 眼鏡啱啱曝光，谷歌搭載 Gemini 的眼鏡也即將上市，這都是 2026 年 AI 眼鏡行業中的重磅選手。而把 Manus 收入囊中的 Meta，會在 AI 眼鏡中如何部署它的代理能力？而在人形機器人領域，《華爾街日報》認為美國 Neo 和 Memo 兩款人形機器人都計劃啓動家庭測試，通過收集真實世界的數據，從而改進機器人，使其更擅長摺疊衣物和清空洗碗機等家務。毫無疑問，2026 年的大模型前沿之戰，就是物理世界的應用。但《連線》不忘叮囑：時刻在線，意味着時刻危險。因為很多可錄製的穿戴設備會帶來隱私或大數據泄露等問題，很多科技公司將在 2026 年採取必要的限制和安全措施。6人工智能的泡沫破裂？DeepSeek 在 2025 年年初的爆發，引發了芯片市場的一陣恐慌，那麼 2026 年還會有什麼意想不到的事情發生？《連線》雜誌認為，2026 年美國 AI 行業可能出現更大幅度的、同樣短暫的下跌。在經歷了高速增長期後，領先的 AI 公司可能需要進行調整，加大對成功投資的投入，並削減那些表現不佳的項目。例如 OpenAI 可能迎來大規模大裁員，因為它過去兩年裏員工人數增長了五倍，達到約 4500 人，它面對着與谷歌等對手的直接競爭，而且將觸角伸向了芯片等很多新領域，它是否仍然擁有最優秀的人才擔任最合適的職位呢？與《福布斯》的判斷一樣，《連線》認為 2026 年湧現大量的 AI 公司上市，很多是趁着估值達到頂峯時套現，錯過「窗口期」的公司，可能會加入裁員的浪潮中。《經濟學人》也提到，如果人工智能的應用普及速度加快，投資者將繼續相信，他們的慷慨投入和耐心最終會帶來豐厚的回報。但任何人工智能收益遲遲無法實現，甚至根本無法實現的跡象，都可能導致估值大幅縮水。歷史證明，即使是鐵路和互聯網等實用技術，也往往伴隨着金融繁榮，但如果人工智能熱潮消退，美國家庭數萬億美元的財富可能會化為烏有。7迎來人工智能領域的失業潮？人工智能可能會在 2026 年引發新一輪的失業潮，這是「人工智能之父」傑弗裏·辛頓最近明確提出的判斷，他表達出擔憂，因為人工智能的發展速度比他預期的要快，尤其是在推理和欺騙人類的能力方面。人工智能確實在改造工作和職場，《福布斯》引用了十位不同公司高層對就業市場的判斷，他們普遍認為在未來一年裏，人工智能的作用更多在於增強和人性化，而非取代人類。此外，《經濟學人》的預測中認為「失業潮」這種擔憂是人之常情，那些更快採用新技術的公司會受益於更高的需求，從而僱佣更多員工；隨着一些工作崗位的過時，新的工作崗位也會湧現。當然，真正的影響仍然不明朗。沒有確定的答案，最終《經濟學人》認為：人工智能會帶來經濟復甦、金融崩潰、社會反彈，還是三者的某種組合？世界將在 2026 年開始找到答案。8中美人工智能芯片的差距縮小？2026 年 1 月 2 日，壁仞科技正式登陸港股市場；而此前，中國 GPU 「四小龍」中的摩爾線程和沐曦股份，都已經登陸了科創板，一系列舉措之下，《福布斯》認為中國人工智能芯片的信心正在增強。雖然英偉達和台積電在芯片領域的技術積累深厚且體系複雜，不是一朝一日可以複製的，但《福布斯》還是承認，中國擁有眾多優秀工程師、豐富的資源以及國家對這項事業的堅定支持。所以它認為 2026 年中國國內芯片產業，將在縮小與美國在人工智能硬件領域的差距方面取得切實而有意義的進展，而且「走上高效發展道路並穩步邁向人工智能芯片製造前沿的跡象將顯而易見」。此外，《福布斯》認為長遠來看，中國人工智能芯片崛起，對英偉達和美國來説是一個糟糕的結果。2026 年開啓的另外一個趨勢是，越來越多的公司開始計劃設計自己的人工智能芯片，針對特定的應用進行優化。9無人駕駛會讓事故更少嗎？無人駕駛出租車依然是《連線》、《華爾街日報》都期待的事物，預計將在 2026 年迎來大幅擴張。因為過去一年，Alphabet 旗下的 Waymo、亞馬遜的 Zoox、特斯拉的 Robotaxi 都發展迅速，並且在公布了新一年在美國市場拓展的計劃，比如 Waymo 要擴張到 25 個城市，提供的服務量將超過 100 萬次，遠高於目前的數十萬次。與此同時，它們也都提到擴張計劃的危險一面，當擴展的城市越多，汽車發生事故或是全城範圍停運，都將導致更多的負面新聞出現。《連線》認為，無人駕駛出租車很少是事故的直接原因，到 2026 年，運營方將有動力採取安全措施，避免發生事故。10永遠不要跟馬斯克作對？SpaceX 上市、Grok 5模型發布、Robotaxi 更大規模商用、人形機器人 Optimus 量產倒計時……全球首富馬斯克的 2026 年將有很多大事發生，諸多懸念待解。「特斯拉約 80% 的價值將來自 Optimus」，馬斯克曾説。美國主流媒體對 2026 的預測中，看不到特斯拉或是 Optimus 的身影，因為馬斯克「畫餅」量產人形機器人太久了。現在可以明確的是，2026 年第一季度特斯拉將正式發布 Optimus V3，至於年底能否啓動年產 100 萬台規模的生產線，也是判斷人形機器人行業的標誌。小鵬汽車、優必選和宇樹科技等一眾中國選手，都已經提前曝光了各自的計劃，它們很可能在搶在特斯拉前面。而如果 SpaceX 如期 2026 年上市，則意味着有史以來規模最大的 IPO 將要發生。目前披露孖展金額預計遠超 300 億美元，目標是實現 1.5 萬億美元的估值。在過去的 2025 年，SpaceX 預計收入將達到 150 億美元左右，而 2026 年將增至 220 億至 240 億美元之間，其中大部分銷售額來自於星鏈計劃。2026 年，馬斯克仍然是全球企業家中的焦點。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}