Air Products and Chemicals (APD) Chief Executive Eduardo Menezes is capable of turning the business around, but the company needs "wins" tied to conventional gas projects to refill its project backlog, BofA Securities said in a note Thursday.

Air Products shares have been more volatile than benchmark markets warrant, as the company caters to buyside expectations and a heavy backlog of projects, BofA said, adding that shares have reset to the lower end of historical valuations, providing a more balanced risk reward.

The brokerage said it expects mid- to high-single-digit earnings per share growth over the mid-term, with NEOM likely to hinder EPS growth in fiscal years 2027 and 2028. Helium headwinds may ease in 2027 because of multi-year compression, and Air Products can "pull more costs out," BofA said.

Possible CBAM suspension could also impact the company, as Yara may choose to pull the plug at Darrow, a perceived positive by investors who seem to be not in favor of the project, according to the note.

BofA upgraded the stock to neutral from underperform, with a price target of $275.

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