Chinese demand for seaborne iron ore imports has shown surprising resilience despite weak steel demand, which continues to support benchmark iron ore prices above $100 per tonne, said Jarden in a Wednesday note.

Jarden added that weak steel margins are sustaining demand for lower-grade iron ore, and discounts for lower-grade iron ore have tightened through the December quarter of 2025, as the current spot discount for iron ore with 58% iron content is about 11%.

The research firm expects a key feature of the December quarter of the fiscal year 2025 reporting season to be the resilience of Fortescue's (ASX:FMG) strong free cash flow generation, helped by its focus on cost leadership. Total shipments for Fortescue are expected to be 50.7 million tonnes, including 2.8 million tonnes from the Iron Bridge project on a 100%-basis with an average revenue from hematite iron ore of $88 per dry metric tonne (dmt).

Fortescue's cash position is expected to increase to $5.2 billion, up from $4.6 billion as at Sept. 30, 2025.

Jarden expects Mineral Resources to report Onslow iron ore shipments of about 8.74 million tonnes with an average received price of about $93 per dmt. Unit costs are expected to be about AU$54 per wet metric tonne (wmt).

Champion Iron (ASX:CIA) is expected to report production of 3.6 million wmt in the December quarter of fiscal year 2025 with sales volumes of 3.86 million dmt, the note added. Realised pricing is expected to be CA$116 per dmt, down 9% from the previous quarter.

Jarden expects Champion Iron's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to be CA$129 million, down 26% from the previous quarter.

Jarden has an underweight rating for Fortescue, a sell rating for Mineral Resources, and an overweight rating for Champion Iron, with respective price targets of AU$17, AU$20, and AU$5.70.

FMG shares were up almost 1% in recent Thursday trade, while MIN rose almost 2% and CIA fell almost 1%.