Elevated global spot commodity prices, above consensus, will give a major boost to 2026 earnings of mining giants like BHP Group (ASX:BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), Jefferies said in a note on Thursday.

Metal and mined commodity prices have continued to rise, driven in part by speculative buying and not just by fundamentals.

At the current copper price levels of $6.02 per pound, as compared with the 2026 forecast of $5.15 per pound, copper miners seem to gain the largest upside in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

As iron ore prices are already close to current market levels, BHP and Rio Tinto are less likely to see big earnings gains when compared to other base metal miners.

However, as a greater portion of BHP and Rio's earnings comes from base metals, their overall equity valuations should rise over time, Jefferies added.