APi Group (APG) is expected to show "limited surprises" with its Q4 print and 2026 guidance, with the tone of the quarterly results expected to be relatively upbeat, UBS Securities said in an earnings preview.

The brokerage said in a Wednesday note that the company's current guidance implies a Q4 revenue of $2.08 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of about $284 million versus Wall Street expectations of $2.089 billion and $287 million.

The investment firm expects APi could guide to 2026 revenue of between $8.30 and 8.50 billion based on 5% to 7% organic growth and modest incremental contributions from M&A and foreign exchange.

UBS noted that estimates appear well-calibrated and the company's incremental EBITDA margins are expected to re-accelerate in 2026 relative to 2025.

Additionally, the investment firm raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate by $31 million to $1.156 billion, driven by slightly higher organic growth and stronger margin expansion.

UBS' 2026 earnings per share estimate remained unchanged at $1.59 as the EBITDA upside is offset by a higher share count. The estimate excludes the pending acquisition of CertaSite, which could add $90 million in revenue and between $16 and $20 million in EBITDA once closed.

The firm raised its price target on APi to $49 from $43, with a buy rating.

Shares of the company were up more than 1% in recent Thursday trading.

Price: 42.55, Change: +0.52, Percent Change: +1.24