Nvidia Stock Falls 3%. "The Honeymoon Is Over for AI"

Dow Jones
01/21

Nvidia stock was dropping 2.9% at $180.84 on Tuesday, hit both by wider market jitters over President Donald Trump's drive to acquire Greenland and doubts about where the artificial-intelligence boom goes from here.

The move was broadly line with the wider market: Technology stocks are out of favor as investors flee to haven assets such as gold. Among other chip makers, Broadcom had fallen 3.1%. However, Advanced Micro Devices was up 2.4% amid online chatter over a report that Meta Platforms could use more of its AI chips in future.

A more critical issue for Nvidia is whether investors are still excited about AI. In a research note titled "the honeymoon is over," Deutsche Bank analysts Adrian Cox and Stefan Abrudan argued Tuesday that this year could be make or break for companies developing AI models without large existing businesses to fund the expense.

"OpenAI is particularly extended and may be most at risk as it seems not yet to have found a workable business model to cover its reported cash burn of $9bn last year and likely $17bn this year," the Deutsche analysts wrote.

OpenAI said Friday that it will be introducing ads to the unpaid version of its flagship ChatGPT and the lowest tier of its paid subscription service ChatGPT Go. OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said in a blog post on Sunday that the company's annualized revenue reached more than $20 billion in 2025.

Nvidia and OpenAI's fates are entwined. Nvidia has agreed to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. Meanwhile, OpenAI has agreed to lease up to five million of Nvidia's chips at a value of $350 billion according to reporting in October by The Wall Street Journal.

"OpenAI has committed to spending $1.4 trillion on data centers and related infrastructure in the next few years," wrote Cox and Abrudan. "The pressure will only increase as it gets nearer to an IPO, mooted for early 2027,"

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