Gartner (IT) likely hit the low point of its contract value metric in Q4 and is on a path toward a "modest recovery," RBC Capital Markets said Thursday in a report.

RBC projects mid-single-digit contract value growth as Gartner exits the year and expects the company to reiterate guidance for high-single-digit growth by the end of 2026 and a return to double-digit growth in 2027. The report cites easing DOGE-related drag, recovery in tariff-impacted industries, improving tech-vendor demand, and better sales productivity as key drivers.

Some investors remain skeptical that contract value growth can meaningfully accelerate, pointing to softer discretionary IT spending and the risk that clients increasingly turn to AI tools instead of Gartner's research, the report said.

RBC models 2026 adjusted earnings at $13.60 a share, slightly above the $13.55 consensus, and forecasts 3.5% revenue growth to $6.72 billion, also ahead of the $6.71 billion consensus.

RBC rates Gartner stock as sector perform with a price target of $250.

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