Mosaic (MOS) is likely to report a weak Q4 due to soft phosphate markets and challenging conditions in Brazil, RBC Capital Markets said in a note Monday.

In 2026, RBC projects better phosphate production but lower margins due to high sulphur costs, especially in H1.

Potash is expected to remain stable, with modest gains in volumes and pricing supported by affordability and demand, the investment firm said.

Fertilizer sales in Brazil will likely stay weak through H1, with Fertilizantes' earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization expected to drop to $381 million from $548 million.

For Q4, RBC expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $481 million, below the $623 million consensus, after Mosaic's pre-released volumes disappointed due to weak phosphate demand and sluggish Brazil sales.

Operational issues, including a fatal incident at the Esterhazy potash mine and high sulphur-related shutdowns in Brazil, add to margin pressures, RBC said.

RBC maintained a sector perform rating for Mosaic and raised its price target to $29 from $27.

The company's shares were up over 2% in recent Tuesday trading.

Price: 27.00, Change: +0.65, Percent Change: +2.45