ANZ said that it expects Australia's consumer price inflation to rise 0.7% month on month in December 2025 and 3.5% on an annual basis, resulting in a 0.5% quarterly rise in the fourth quarter, according to a report released by the bank on Thursday.

The bank expects the fourth-quarter trimmed mean to be 0.8% higher on a quarterly basis or 3.2% higher on an annual basis.

The bank said it considers the risks around its fourth quarter trimmed mean forecast to be broadly balanced.

The bank believes that a 0.8% quartely trimmed mean result will likely not be sufficient for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise rates in February, but the risk of higher interest rates would nonetheless remain until the RBA has more comfort that inflation will evolve in line with the forecasts from the November statement on monetary policy.