Air New Zealand (NZSE:AIR) Valuation Check After Travel Disruptions And Soft Long Term Shareholder Returns

Simply Wall St.

01/23

Recent flight cancellations, delays, and tight capacity during the busy travel season have pushed Air New Zealand (NZSE:AIR) back into focus for investors, particularly as these operational issues ...

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See our latest analysis for Air New Zealand. Those travel disruptions, Covid era credit headlines, and mixed signals around tourism recovery are playing out against a relatively soft share price backdrop, with a latest share price of NZ$0.58, a slightly positive 1 day share price return but a 5 year total shareholder return of a 27.82% decline. This suggests momentum has been fragile rather than firmly building. If this kind of volatility has you looking beyond airlines, it could be a good moment to size up aerospace and defense stocks as a broader way to think about exposure to the aviation and defense space. So, with a NZ$0.58 share price, an intrinsic value estimate suggesting an 11.86% discount, and a 5-year total shareholder return showing a 27.82% decline, is this a reset entry point, or is the market already pricing in what comes next? AdvertisementPrice-to-Earnings of 14.9x: Is it justified? On a P/E of 14.9x, Air New Zealand looks cheaper than some peers while still carrying a recent track record of weak share price returns. The P/E multiple compares the current share price to earnings per share, so it effectively shows how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. For an airline like Air New Zealand, where earnings can be sensitive to demand swings, costs, and capacity decisions, the P/E helps you see what the market is currently willing to pay for those earnings. Here, the stock trades at a 14.9x P/E, which is below the peer average of 24.3x and also below an estimated fair P/E of 34.4x. That combination suggests the market is assigning a lower earnings multiple than both direct peers and the level our fair ratio work points to as more typical. Against the broader Global Airlines industry, though, the same 14.9x P/E screens as expensive compared with the 9.5x industry average, so you are paying a higher earnings multiple than the global group even if local peers and fair ratio estimates point to more room for the multiple to move up over time. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Air New Zealand Result: Price-to-Earnings of 14.9x (UNDERVALUED) However, recurring travel disruptions and a 5 year total shareholder return showing a 27.82% decline could keep sentiment fragile and limit any quick re-rating. Find out about the key risks to this Air New Zealand narrative. Another View: Cash Flows Tell a Similar Story Our DCF model points in the same direction as the earnings multiple. At NZ$0.58, Air New Zealand sits about 11.9% below an estimated future cash flow value of NZ$0.66, so anyone buying today is paying less than that modelled cash flow value. Of course, discounted cash flows lean heavily on long term assumptions about earnings, margins, and capital spending. The question for you is whether those inputs feel realistic given recent disruptions and a mixed share price track record, or whether the discount is there for a reason. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. AIR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Air New Zealand for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 883 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Air New Zealand Narrative If you look at the numbers differently or want to stress test every assumption yourself, you can build a personalised view in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Air New Zealand research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you are weighing up Air New Zealand today, it is worth casting the net wider so you can compare this opportunity with other clearly defined sets of stocks.  Spot potential value gaps by scanning these 883 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that might be trading below what their cash flows suggest. Back your curiosity about emerging tech by reviewing these 24 AI penny stocks that link artificial intelligence themes to listed companies. Strengthen your search for regular income by checking out these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that focus on yields above 3%.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}