By Adam Clark

ASML Holding will report its earnings before the U.S. market opens on Wednesday. Expectations are high for the Dutch chipmaking-equipment company.

ASML holds a near-monopoly on the lithography machines, which are crucial for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductors. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), the world's most important chip manufacturer, recently said it would make massive investments in production capacity this year and for several years ahead, which has buoyed investor sentiment toward ASML.

ASML's American depositary receipts were up 2.9% early on Tuesday and have more than doubled over the past year.

The company is expected to report a net profit of EUR2.93 billion ($3.51 billion) on revenue of EUR9.57 billion for the December quarter, according to FactSet. Orders for the quarter are expected at EUR6.85 billion.

The large price tag of ASML's machines means order and revenue numbers can swing significantly from quarter to quarter, so investor attention will likely focus on management's tone on the order outlook. The company has previously said it expects 2026 sales to at least match 2025 levels.

"Estimates for ASML in '27 are too low and have considerable upside and there is a high likelihood that spending continues to be strong or stronger in '28," J.P. Morgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande wrote in a recent research note.

As Barron's has previously written, one key question hanging over ASML is adoption of its newest high-aperture extreme-ultraviolet lithography (High-NA EUV) machines. TSMC has been reluctant to publicly commit to buying the equipment, suggesting it can extend the life of its existing machines.

"EUV and High-NA adoption remain structurally critical given their higher ASPs [average selling prices] and mix benefits; I see even modest High-NA orders as a positive inflection for long-term sales," Counterpoint Research analyst Ashwath Rao said.

ASML executives might also face some questions about politics, after a brief scare about a trade war between the European Union and the U.S. over President Donald Trump's push to acquire Greenland. ASML is arguably Europe's single most important exporter to the U.S., and it continues to face export restrictions on certain tools shipped to China.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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January 27, 2026 11:41 ET (16:41 GMT)

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