Assessing Walt Disney (DIS) Valuation As Recent Share Price Declines Clash With Conflicting Fair Value Signals

Simply Wall St.

01/29

AdvertisementHow Walt Disney stock has been trading Walt Disney (DIS) has seen its share price close at US$109.56, with recent returns showing a 0.9% decline over the past day and a 3.2% decline over ...

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On a year to date basis, Walt Disney records a 2.0% decline, with a 2.1% total return decline over the past year.\nLooking further back, the total return over 3 years stands at 2.5%, while the 5 year...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","LU1035773651.USD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","LU1267930573.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"AA\" (SGD) ACC A","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","DIS":"迪士尼","BK4507":"流媒体概念","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0726765562.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD HEDGED) INC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0210533765.USD":"JPM GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0708994859.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"由于近期股价下跌与公允价值信号相互冲突，评估华特迪士尼(DIS)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":1.5,"DCF":1},"content_text":"AdvertisementHow Walt Disney stock has been trading Walt Disney (DIS) has seen its share price close at US$109.56, with recent returns showing a 0.9% decline over the past day and a 3.2% decline over the past week. Over a month, the stock shows a 4.1% decline, while the past 3 months reflect a 2.0% decline. On a year to date basis, Walt Disney records a 2.0% decline, with a 2.1% total return decline over the past year. Looking further back, the total return over 3 years stands at 2.5%, while the 5 year total return reflects a 36.4% decline. These figures give you a snapshot of how the stock has recently behaved across different timeframes. See our latest analysis for Walt Disney. For context, Disney’s recent 1 month share price return of a 4.1% decline sits alongside a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 2.1%, suggesting momentum has softened despite modest gains over three years. If you are reassessing your media and entertainment exposure after Disney’s recent moves, it could be a good moment to scan high growth tech and AI stocks for other ideas shaping the content and streaming space. With Disney shares slipping across most recent timeframes while analyst targets sit higher and the stock screens with a middling value score, you have to ask: is this a genuine opportunity or is future growth already priced in? Most Popular Narrative: 16.7% Undervalued According to the most followed narrative, Walt Disney's fair value sits at $131.50 per share, above the recent close of $109.56, which frames the current debate around the stock.  The next five years are poised to be transformative: ESPN’s NFL-driven streaming dominance, streaming scaling into multibillion-dollar profits, parks and cruises expanding globally, and blockbuster releases fueling the IP machine. Disney could see sustained double-digit EPS growth and a re-rating of the stock as sports transforms from a cable anchor into a digital rocket booster.  Read the complete narrative. This narrative, put forward by Cashflow_Queen, leans heavily on ESPN's NFL tie up, streaming profitability, and the Experiences division to justify that $131.50 view. Want to see how revenue, margins, and earnings are stitched together to reach that outcome without any back of the envelope guesswork? The full story lays out a detailed route from today's mix of streaming, parks, and studio output to that higher fair value, step by step. Result: Fair Value of $131.50 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this story can break if sports rights costs climb faster than ESPN’s revenue, or if streaming subscriber growth stalls despite bundle pricing and new products. Find out about the key risks to this Walt Disney narrative. Another angle on value Not everyone is using a narrative fair value of $131.50 to frame Disney. Our DCF model, which values the stock on future cash flows, comes out closer to $84.01 per share, suggesting Walt Disney is overvalued on that lens. So which story do you trust more: the cash flows or the crowd narrative? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. DIS Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Walt Disney for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 877 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Walt Disney Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to dig into the details yourself, you can spin up a tailored view in just a few minutes: Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Walt Disney. Looking for more investment ideas? Before you move on, line up a few fresh ideas so you are not relying on a single stock story when markets shift and new themes emerge.  Spot early-stage potential by checking out these 3519 penny stocks with strong financials that already back up their story with stronger financials. Lean into the AI trend with these 24 AI penny stocks that link artificial intelligence to real business models, not just buzzwords. Focus on value by scanning these 877 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where current prices sit below cash flow based estimates.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Walt Disney might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}