Predicting the events of 2025 was anything but easy, as the results of our annual forecasting challenge show. The average score was a mere 4.6 points out of a possible 18. Read about the winner here. We have reproduced the 2025 quiz below, with the correct answers in bold.

Our 2025 Forecasting Challenge

1) What will the S&P 500 index return in 2025, including dividends? A. Negative B. Zero to 10% C. 10.1% to 20% D. 20.1% or more

2) What will be the year's biggest financial surprise? A. S&P 500 gains over 20% B. The Magnificent Seven stocks have a down year. (We'll base it on the MAGS exchange-traded fund.) C. Ten-year Treasury yield finishes year above 5% yield. (It's now around 4.5%.) D. Bitcoin (now around $100,000) continues its surge and finishes year above $150,000 E. None of the above

3) Which S&P 500 sector will fare best in 2025? A. Technology B. Energy C. Healthcare D. Financials

4) Which winning stock from 2024 will generate the worst return in 2025? A. MicroStrategy B. Palantir Technologies C. Netflix D. Nvidia

5) Which losing stock from 2024 will do best in 2025? A. Pfizer B. Boeing C. Intel D. CVS Health

6) Which asset class will fare best in 2025? A. U.S. stocks (S&P 500 index) B. International stocks (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF) C. U.S. bonds (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF) D. Gold E. Bitcoin

7) Which leading international stock will return the most in 2025? A. Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) B. Novo Nordisk (NVO) C. LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton $(LVMUY)$ D. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing $(TSM)$

8) What will happen in Washington? A. Trump/Musk bromance cools, with Musk exiting DOGE B. Congress cracks down on pharmacy-benefit managers C. Trump gets to nominate at least one Supreme Court justice D. Kamala Harris says she will run for California governor in 2026 E. None of the above

9) Name the top stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, including dividends (worth two points). Caterpillar $(CAT)$

10) Name the worst stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, including dividends (worth two points). UnitedHealth Group $(UNH)$

11) How many times will the Federal Reserve move interest rates in 2025? A. Three or more cuts B. One or two cuts C. None D. At least one increase in rates

12) What will inflation be in 2025, as measured by the consumer price index (based on the 12-month figure reported in December)? A. 2% or lower B. 2.1% to 3% C. 3.1% to 4% D. 4.1% or higher

13) Which commodity will perform best in 2025? A. Gold B. Oil C. Natural gas D. Corn

14) Which prominent CEO will be gone by the end of 2025? A. Stéphane Bancel (Moderna) B. Albert Bourla (Pfizer) C. Jim Farley (Ford Motor) D. Brian Niccol (Starbucks) E. Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) F. None of the above

15) Where will the 10-year Treasury yield end 2025? A. 3.5% or lower B. 3.51% to 4.25% C. 4.26% to 5% D. Above 5%

16) Which company will have the highest market value at year-end 2025? (Apple now leads, followed by Nvidia.) A. Apple B. Nvidia C. Microsoft D. Tesla E. Another company

17) Tiebreaker: Where will the Dow industrials end 2025? The index is now around 43,000. 48,063

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January 30, 2026 19:58 ET (00:58 GMT)

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