By Alex Kozul-Wright

Royal Caribbean stock has sailed higher to start 2026 but its earnings early Thursday will be a big test of whether that can continue. Investors will be particularly interested in the company's 2026 guidance, having disappointed with its outlook last quarter.

The stock has had a strong start to the year, rising more than 6% to $292 so far in 2026.

It has easily outperformed its competitors Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, which have both fallen more than 6% over the same period.

Analysts are expecting earnings of $2.80 per share on revenue of $4.3 billion. For the full year, Wall Street is forecasting expected earnings per share of $15.65 on revenue of $19.6 billion.

The cruise operator's 2026 guidance is likely to be closely watched. Stifel Research analyst Steven Wieczynski said he was "somewhat nervous" about Royal Caribbean's full-year outlook.

He added that investors' expectations were "aggressive" and said "it wouldn't surprise us if RCL's initial guidance underwhelms and shares experience a near-term correction." Though, he has a Buy rating on the stock, with a price target of $380.

The broader macroeconomic backdrop may also be a concern for investors. Given the cumulative impacts of inflation and renewed uncertainty around a new government shutdown, bruised consumer confidence in the U.S. could dent demand and investor sentiment.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for January slumped by 9.7 points from December to just 84.5, its lowest level since 2014, as consumers have grown more cautious wary about spending on big ticket items.

Though cruise demand has roared back since the end of the pandemic, investors in Royal Caribbean will be looking out for signs that consumption could snap back.

Write to Alex Kozul-Wright at alexander.kozul-wright@barrons.com

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January 28, 2026 16:12 ET (21:12 GMT)

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