Philip Morris International (PM) is expected to provide cautious fiscal year 2026 guidance with a wider-than-usual range after outperforming US staple stocks by 9% year to date, UBS Securities said in a note emailed Tuesday.

The company faces uncertainties due to a weaker US dollar, rising competition in heated tobacco and elasticity impact in Japan, along with a risk of renewed ZYN promotions and uncertainties around the launch of ZYN Ultra and IQOS Iluma in the US, which are expected to keep earnings below its midterm fiscal year 2026 organic sales target of over 5.7%, the note said.

For Q4, UBS expects the company's organic sales to grow by 2.7% and earnings per share to be $1.72, compared with the consensus of $1.66.

For fiscal year 2026, Philip Morris is expected grow organic sales by 5.7%, below consensus, and report earnings per share of $8.40, slightly above Street expectations of $8.33, the note said.

Philip Morris said it will report earnings on Friday.

UPS reiterated its neutral rating and $158 price target on the stock.

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