By Elena Vardon

Spanish bank Santander is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Wednesday. Here is what you need to know.

NET PROFIT FORECAST: The Spanish lender is expected to report an underlying attributable profit of 3.41 billion euros ($4.02 billion) for the three months ended Dec. 31, according to company-compiled consensus based on 13 analysts' estimates. Santander posted a net profit of 3.265 billion euros for the same period in the previous year.

INCOME FORECAST: Revenue is expected to come in at 15.675 billion euros for the quarter by the same consensus, down from previous year's 16.03 billion euros. Net interest income--the difference between what banks earn on loans and what they pay clients for deposits--is expected to contribute 11.32 billion euros to the total result, down from 11.99 billion euros, with the rest coming from fees and trading income.

Shares gained 13% over the three-month period to Dec. 31. Since the start of January, the stock has gained nearly 11% and currently trades at around 11 euros. The bank has more than doubled its market capitalization in the past 12 months to around 163 billion euros, making it continental Europe's largest lender by market value.

WHAT TO WATCH

-- INVESTOR DAY: Santander's fourth-quarter may be overshadowed by the capital markets day the bank is hosting on Feb. 25. Expectations are high for the event. The bank is set to outline new midterm targets following a step-up in profitability over the past two years and a rally in its shares.

"Our focus will be on any insights we may get on the upcoming strategy day," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients. Citi analysts expect the new plan to focus on cost-saving measures--particularly in the U.K., Brazil, and Mexico--as well as on capital allocation and optimization. "The key question for investors is no longer whether returns are improving--that is largely priced in--but whether Santander can deliver returns and earnings above current market expectations," Barclays analysts write.

-- PROVISIONS: The amount of money put aside to cover bad loans will be in focus, especially in Brazil, the U.S. and the U.K. Consensus pencils in 3.16 billion euros in loan loss provisions for the quarter, slightly higher than the 3.11 billion euros it booked a year prior.

-- CURRENCY EFFECT: Given the group's international footprint, the extent to which foreign exchange fluctuations drag on results will be key, especially in light of the volatility in the Argentinian peso and the depreciation of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso against the euro in the final quarter.

-- CAPITAL: What the Spanish bank does with its excess capital will be in focus, particularly whether it launches a new share buyback program or modifies its payout ratio. "We also see capital as a potential area of positive surprise, with the company already anticipating positive seasonality in terms of [significant risk transfers]," UBS wrote.

Write to Elena Vardon at elena.vardon@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 03, 2026 06:43 ET (11:43 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.