Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is expected to report in-line Q4 results on Feb. 3 but the shares could be positioned for a revival this year, Oppenheimer said in a Monday note.

"We anticipate in-line 4Q25 results, but believe shares are well-positioned for a spicy revival story this year," the report said.

Following five straight quarterly same-store sales misses, Oppenheimer analysts expect Q4 to be "in-line" with Street's -3% forecast, with low risk of restaurant margin downside.

Looking ahead, the report pointed to catalysts for a reversal in consensus 2026 earnings revisions along with a healthier same-store sales path thanks to self-help drivers and a lower bar.

The note said the negative revision cycle has troughed, and the painful reset during 2025 enables a "spicier" setup this year. It said restaurant margin estimates in 2026 appear conservative, with cost of goods sold, labor, and others likely to de-leverage.

"The market overlooks CMG's superior brand positioning and price/value advantages in a more stable operating environment," the note said.

Oppenheimer kept its its outperform rating on the stock with a price target of $51.

Price: 38.14, Change: -0.73, Percent Change: -1.88