ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) shares are trading lower on Thursday after the company reported fourth-quarter FY25 earnings that missed the consensus estimate.

The company reported earnings of $1.4 billion, or $1.17 per share, compared with $2.3 billion, or $1.90 per share, in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EPS totaled $1.02, missing the consensus estimate of $1.11.

Earnings declined 39% year over year (Y/Y) due to lower prices in the quarter.

Revenue for the quarter was $14.185 billion, missing the expected $14.194 billion consensus.

Production Details

Total production for the quarter rose to 2.32 million BOED, an increase of 137 MBOED from a year ago. After adjusting for closed acquisitions and dispositions, production declined by 2.6% or 63 MBOED.

Lower 48 production reached 1,439 MBOED, comprising 673 MBOED from the Delaware Basin, 194 MBOED from the Midland Basin, 370 MBOED from the Eagle Ford, and 198 MBOED from the Bakken.

The company reported a total average realized price of $42.46 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) in the quarter, down 19% Y/Y.

Dividends

ConocoPhillips declared a first-quarter regular dividend of 84 cents per share, payable on March 2, to shareholders of record as of February 18, 2026.

The company spent $3.0 billion on capital investments, repurchased $1.0 billion in shares, and paid $1.0 billion in dividends.

Cost Savings & Cash Flow

The company closed dispositions of $3.2 billion in 2025 and expects to achieve $5 billion total disposition target by year-end 2026.

The company generated $19.8 billion in operating cash flow in the year. It ended the quarter with $7.4 billion in cash and short-term investments and $1.1 billion in long-term investments.

Project & Other Key Updates

ConocoPhillips completed the integration of Marathon Oil, thereby doubling synergy capture to over $1 billion on a run-rate basis in 2025, while realizing an additional ~$1 billion in one-time benefits.

ConocoPhillips stated that it made progress in the Willow project in Alaska and equity LNG developments at North Field East (NFE) and North Field South in Qatar, as well as Port Arthur LNG (PALNG) in the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2025, all on track with NFE startup expected in the second half of 2026.

Also, the company advanced the commercial LNG strategy by securing an initial offtake of 5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) for PALNG Phase 1 and an additional 5 MTPA, bringing the total commercial offtake portfolio to 10 MTPA.

Outlook 

ConocoPhillips now expects first-quarter production between 2.30 million and 2.34 million BOE per day.

The company says it is on track to achieve incremental cost reductions and margin enhancements of over $1 billion on a run-rate basis by year-end 2026.

For 2026, ConocoPhillips expects capital expenditures of roughly $12 billion and adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion, in line with prior preliminary guidance.

Total production is projected to be within 2.33 and 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED), with first quarter production expected at 2.30–2.34 MMBOED, accounting for weather-related downtime.

The company plans to return 45% of cash flow from operations to shareholders in 2026.

Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer, added, “We are well-positioned to deliver an expected $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion each year from 2026 through 2028.”

COP Price Action: ConocoPhillips shares were down 3.81% at $103.49 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo via Shutterstock