Australian Wholesale Electricity Prices Under Pressure From Strong Renewables Supply, Jefferies Says

MT Newswires Live
02/09

Australian wholesale electricity prices remain under pressure due to the strong supply from renewables in the national electricity market, Jefferies said in a note on Feb. 6.

The financial services firm said AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) is expected to report fiscal first half earnings before interest and taxes of AU$1.01 billion, down 5.4% on last year, which is below consensus forecasts of nearly AU$1.05 billion, while management guidance for fiscal year earnings is for growth driven by enhanced fleet availability and flexibility, alongside the contribution from the Liddell Battery in New South Wales.

Management guidance is for fiscal year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to be between AU$1.92 billion and AU$2.22 billion, higher than the forecast of AU$2.1 billion and Visible Alpha consensus of AU$2.09 billion.

Jefferies has a buy rating on AGL and a price target of AU$12.24.

Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) is forecast to report fiscal first-half Energy Markets EBITDA of AU$795 million, slightly below the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of AU$808 million.

Jefferies has a buy rating on Origin and a price target of AU$12.87.

Meanwhile, APA Group (ASX:APA) is anticipated to report fiscal first-half EBITDA of AU$1.09 billion, up 7.7% on last year, and near the Visible Alpha consensus of AU$1.08 billion.

Management is expected to prioritize cost control, anticipating operating expenses to increase below inflation, while continuing to focus on the Group's growth pipeline delivery.

Gas is a crucial transition fuel as coal plants reach end-of-life, but increased near-term investment is essential to give confidence in the transition, Jefferies said.

The firm has a hold rating on APA and a price target of AU$8.90.

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