15年來最嚴重缺貨 | 高盛重磅研報：存儲行業進入史詩級周期

源頭研報哥

02/10

導語：如果你認為過去的芯片荒已經足夠驚心動魄，那麼高盛這份最新的研報可能會刷新你的認知。高盛明確指出：2026年，全球存儲市場將迎來過去15年裏最嚴重的供需失衡。AI不再只是一個口號，它正在以前所未有的速度吞噬着全球的存儲產能。~~史詩級缺貨：15年一遇的供需錯配~~根據高盛發布的最新《全球存儲供需更新與BOM成本分析》報告，全球半導體存儲行業正站在一個歷史性的轉折點上。報告給出了一組令人震驚的...

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cycle","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GSX":0.6,"GS":1.91,"WDC":1.87},"content_text":"導語：如果你認為過去的芯片荒已經足夠驚心動魄，那麼高盛這份最新的研報可能會刷新你的認知。高盛明確指出：2026年，全球存儲市場將迎來過去15年裏最嚴重的供需失衡。AI不再只是一個口號，它正在以前所未有的速度吞噬着全球的存儲產能。~~史詩級缺貨：15年一遇的供需錯配~~根據高盛發布的最新《全球存儲供需更新與BOM成本分析》報告，全球半導體存儲行業正站在一個歷史性的轉折點上。報告給出了一組令人震驚的數據。DRAM（隨機存取存儲器）：預計2026年供需缺口將達到4.9%，2027年缺口持續維持在2.5%。NAND（閃存）：預計2026年供需缺口將擴大至4.2%，2027年為2.1%。高盛直言不諱，2026年預計出現的供應短缺，將是過去15年來最嚴重的一次。這種缺口意味着，即便芯片巨頭們開足馬力，也無法完全滿足市場的胃口。~~誰在吞噬產能？AI服務器是頭號「推手」~~為什麼在經歷過之前的周期波動後，存儲行業會突然陷入如此嚴重的緊缺？答案只有一個：AI服務器。HBM與DDR的需求狂飆：隨着大模型訓練和推理需求的指數級增長，服務器對高性能存儲（如HBM、DDR5、LPDDR5以及SOCAMM）的需求已經到了「飢渴」的程度。核心邏輯的變化：存儲不再僅僅是電腦或手機的配件，它已經成為了AI算力基座的核心組成部分。高盛觀察到，下游客户的訂單不僅沒有放緩跡象，反而表現出極強的韌性。BOM成本結構的重塑：報告深入分析了BOM（物料清單）成本，發現隨着存儲器價格的抬升和容量需求的增加，存儲成本在整機中的佔比正在大幅提升，這進一步倒逼了供應鏈的囤貨意願。~~供給端鎖死：擴產的速度跟不上需求~~在需求側狂飆的同時，供給側卻顯得「心有餘而力不足」。剋制的產能擴張：經歷過前幾年的行業寒冬，三星、海力士等巨頭在產能擴張上變得異常謹慎。技術轉型的陣痛：從傳統DRAM向HBM轉型需要佔用更多的晶圓空間（Wafer consumption），這意味着即使晶圓投入量增加，實際產出的位元數（Bit growth）也可能受限。健康的庫存水平：目前全行業的庫存已經迴歸到非常健康的水平，不再有低價拋售的壓力，賣方市場掌握了絕對的定價權。~~投資策略：重申「買入」評級，聚焦這些巨頭~~基於對供需極其緊缺的預期，高盛預測存儲公司的盈利水平和毛利率將衝向歷史最高點。在投資佈局上，高盛給出了明確的指引。存儲芯片三巨頭：重申對三星、SK海力士和西部數據的「買入」評級。它們是這波漲價周期的最大受益者。上游設備供應商：隨着擴產周期的開啓，半導體設備商將迎來訂單爆發。高盛重點推薦了日本設備三巨頭：東京電子、愛發科和迪思科。~~認知的價值~~每一次周期的頂點，都伴隨着認知的博弈。高盛這份報告其實在告訴我們：AI對半導體行業的改造才啱啱進入深水區。當存儲芯片從「大宗商品」轉變為「戰略稀缺資源」時，整個行業的估值體系都將被重塑。對於投資者和從業者來説，現在關注的重點不應再是「是否會漲價」，而是「這種高景氣的缺貨狀態會持續多久」。2026年，我們將共同見證存儲行業的「高光時刻」。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}