Al Root

Ford Motor and its stock weathered a tumultuous 2025, punctuated by tariffs, supplier problems, and electric-vehicle asset write-downs. Investors will be looking for smoother sailing in 2026, when management speaks to investors Tuesday evening.

For the fourth quarter, Wall Street projects operating profit of $1.2 billion from sales of $43.6 billion. A year ago, Ford reported an operating profit of $2.1 billion from sales of $48.2 billion.

Beating sales numbers should be doable. Ford's fourth-quarter U.S. retail sales were up almost 3% year over year, which was "the company's best Q4 performance since 2009," wrote RBC analyst Tom Narayan in a preview report. (Retail sales don't always align with wholesale volumes, but Ford's quarter was solid.)

For the full year 2025, Ford should produce an operating profit of close to $7 billion. The company's initial outlook for 2025 operating profit, given about a year ago, was between $7 billion and $8.5 billion, down from $10.2 billion reported in 2024.

Tariffs weighed on results. So did a supplier fire that had an impact on production. (Ford backs out EV-related asset write-downs from its adjusted profit figures.)

For 2026, Wall Street projects an operating profit of about $9.1 billion. The uptick is driven by "a $1 billion improvement year over year from fire recoveries," added Narayan, along with "organic" improvement in each of Ford's divisions -- EVs, its traditional combustion-engine business, and commercial vehicles.

Tariffs should show up in guidance as well. Levies probably cost Ford about $1 billion in 2025 operating profit.

Narayan, for his part, rates Ford stock Hold and has a $12 price target. That's below where shares are trading. It's also below the average analyst price target for Ford stock of about $13.60.

Wall Street, it seems, wasn't ready for the rally following President Donald Trump's tariff announcements in April. Ford stock traded below $9 at the time, with investors fearing that levies would raise costs and choke off consumer demand.

Things turned out much better than feared. For 2026, Wall Street projects flat automotive sales. Flat will be fine if other issues, like fires and tariffs, don't pop up along the way.

Coming into Tuesday trading, Ford stock was up about 47% over the past 12 months, about 31 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@barrons.com

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February 10, 2026 03:36 ET (08:36 GMT)

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