馬斯克：最便宜的AI算力在太空、人形機器人就是「印鈔機」

澎湃新聞

02/09

澎湃新聞記者吳遇利近日，在一場持續近3小時的公開視頻訪談中，特斯拉CEO埃隆·馬斯克拋出了一個頗具爭議的判斷：在未來30至36個月內，部署AI算力最便宜的地方將不再是地球，而是太空。特斯拉CEO埃隆·馬斯克。視覺中國資料圖在與播客博主Dwarkesh Patel以及全球支付公司Stripe聯合創始人John Collison的對話中，馬斯克系統闡述了其對人工智能擴展路徑的最新看法，稱AI的最大...

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17:17","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2610205636","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"馬斯克：最便宜的AI算力在太空、人形機器人就是「印鈔機」","media":"澎湃新聞","content":"<div>\n<p>澎湃新聞記者 吳遇利近日，在一場持續近3小時的公開視頻訪談中，特斯拉CEO埃隆·馬斯克拋出了一個頗具爭議的判斷：在未來30至36個月內，部署AI算力最便宜的地方將不再是地球，而是太空。特斯拉CEO埃隆·馬斯克。視覺中國 資料圖在與播客博主Dwarkesh Patel以及全球支付公司Stripe聯合創始人John Collison的對話中，馬斯克系統闡述了其對人工智能擴展路徑的最新看法，稱AI的最大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209180611a48eb6d7&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>馬斯克：最便宜的AI算力在太空、人形機器人就是「印鈔機」</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209180611a48eb6d7&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209180611a48eb6d7&s=b\">澎湃新聞</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSDD","symbol_name":"2倍沽空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209180611a48eb6d7&s=b","article_id":"2610205636","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209180611a48eb6d7&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610205636","pubTimestamp":1770628634,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"自動駕駛、人形機器人與航天等都將是物理世界AI的不同落點。Optimus被稱為「無限印鈔機」相比太空算力、AI芯片等，馬斯克在訪談中對人形機器人Optimus的評價更為直白。馬斯克指出，機器人的實際價值並非線性疊加，而是三者的乘積。他強調，目前尚未看到任何一款機器人在手部靈巧度上接近Optimus，並明確表示，一些現有的人形機器人方案「並不具備與人類持平的機電操控能力」。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON 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humanoid robots are \"money printing machines\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLS":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLI":0.6},"content_text":"澎湃新聞記者 吳遇利近日，在一場持續近3小時的公開視頻訪談中，特斯拉CEO埃隆·馬斯克拋出了一個頗具爭議的判斷：在未來30至36個月內，部署AI算力最便宜的地方將不再是地球，而是太空。特斯拉CEO埃隆·馬斯克。視覺中國 資料圖在與播客博主Dwarkesh Patel以及全球支付公司Stripe聯合創始人John Collison的對話中，馬斯克系統闡述了其對人工智能擴展路徑的最新看法，稱AI的最大瓶頸是電力，而當電力成為限制因素時，太空將成為唯一具備長期可擴展性的算力承載。這一判斷被外界視為SpaceX從航天公司向「太空基礎設施運營商」轉型的信號。在馬斯克看來，AI是所有業務的底層邏輯，機器人是最具顛覆性的終端形態，而SpaceX正從探索導向轉向太空基礎設施導向。自動駕駛、人形機器人與航天等都將是物理世界AI的不同落點。為什麼是太空：電力瓶頸下的「最便宜AI算力」馬斯克在訪談中反覆強調，未來AI擴展的核心限制並非芯片本身，而是電力與能源獲取能力。他直言，除中國以外，全球主要經濟體的電力產出幾乎處於停滯狀態，而算力需求卻仍在指數級增長。「你可以製造越來越多的芯片，但如果它們沒有電，就只能堆在倉庫裏。」馬斯克預測，今年年底前，行業內可能出現「芯片堆積如山卻無法開機」的局面。「在未來30到36個月內，在太空部署AI將成為成本最低的選擇，而且這種優勢會越來越大。」馬斯克提出，太空沒有晝夜循環、雲層與大氣衰減，太陽能板的有效效率約為地面的5倍；不需要大規模儲能電池系統；散熱可通過真空輻射完成，而非耗能的地面冷卻設施。馬斯克給出了一個具體算例：部署約11萬台GB300級服務器，在考慮網絡、CPU、存儲與冷卻後，整體功耗約為300兆瓦；當規模擴展至33萬台時，就需要1吉瓦電力。這一量級，在地球上獲取不僅成本高昂，而且受制於渦輪機、變壓器等關鍵設備。相比之下，他認為，一旦進入太空，「生成token將成為最便宜、也是唯一可持續擴展的方式」。SpaceX：準備至少每年1萬次發射在這場訪談中，馬斯克明確給出了SpaceX發射頻率的數量級目標。他透露，SpaceX正在為每年1萬次發射做準備，極端情況下甚至可能提升至2萬到3萬次。其終極目標是構建一個圍繞低地球軌道展開的「軌道數據中心」。美國聯邦通信委員會（FCC）在1月披露的信息顯示，SpaceX已提交申請，計劃發射並運營最多100萬顆低軌衞星，用於算力與數據處理。馬斯克在訪談中給出了一個更具衝擊力的判斷：「五年後，我預計我們每年向太空發射並投入運營的AI算力，將超過地球上所有AI算力的總和。」這一目標意味着每年向軌道輸送約100吉瓦（GW）的太陽能與算力載荷，相當於約1萬次星艦任務。作為對比，目前美國全國的總耗電量約為500吉瓦。在被問及「太空GPU壞了怎麼辦」時，馬斯克的回答並未迴避現實難題，而是強調工程路徑的轉變：當發射與製造成本足夠低時，更換將比維修更經濟。「太瓦工廠」與芯片時間表：AI5芯片明年量產如果説太空解決的是能源問題，那麼芯片則是算力進入太空後的下一道瓶頸。馬斯克在訪談中再次提及「TeraFab（太瓦工廠）」這一構想。他直言，當前全球芯片製造體系的產能與擴張速度，無法匹配未來AI與機器人所需的規模。他的思路並非一蹴而就地顛覆現有製造工藝，而是「先用傳統設備，通過系統級創新實現數量級放大，再對設備本身進行重構。」在具體時間表上，馬斯克給出了指引：特斯拉AI5芯片計劃於2027年第二季度左右完成流片並進入量產；AI6芯片將在AI5之後不到一年內推出。這些芯片將首先用於Optimus人形機器人，而非傳統數據中心。他同時確認，特斯拉已「拿下能爭取到的所有晶圓廠產能」，包括台積電與三星在中國台灣、韓國及美國的工廠。他再次強調電力的重要性説，「在算力進入太空之前，電力是主要限制因素；進入太空之後，芯片才會成為限制因素。」此外，馬斯克還提到，他認為三四年後，中國將會生產出極具競爭力的芯片。Optimus被稱為「無限印鈔機」相比太空算力、AI芯片等，馬斯克在訪談中對人形機器人Optimus的評價更為直白。他多次使用一個近乎誇張的説法，將其稱為「the infinite money glitch（無限印鈔機）」。其理由在於三項指數級增長因素的疊加：數字智能、AI芯片能力、機電操控靈巧度。馬斯克指出，機器人的實際價值並非線性疊加，而是三者的乘積。他強調，目前尚未看到任何一款機器人在手部靈巧度上接近Optimus，並明確表示，一些現有的人形機器人方案「並不具備與人類持平的機電操控能力」。在產能規劃上，馬斯克給出了明確數字：Optimus第3代年產能目標100萬台；Optimus第4代：年產能目標 1000萬台。訓練路徑上，特斯拉計劃部署至少1萬台Optimus，甚至擴展至2萬至3萬台，通過真實場景下的自對弈訓練完成能力提升。未來，Grok將作為中樞，統一調度這些機器人執行建設、製造等複雜任務。談及中美競爭，馬斯克回應説，中國在礦石精煉、材料製造等基礎環節已佔據絕對優勢，「在一些領域，產能大約是世界其他地區總和的兩倍」。他警告稱，如果美國無法在機器人等領域實現突破性創新，中國將在AI、電動車和人形機器人制造上取得全面主導。這次發聲的時間點，正值馬斯克旗下多家公司進入資本支出與戰略投入高度集中的階段。特斯拉正持續加大在人工智能芯片、算力和自動化領域的投入；xAI仍處於快速擴張和高資金消耗階段；而SpaceX則在推進星艦測試與擴大星鏈商業化規模的同時，成為資本市場關注其估值與長期商業模式的焦點。據路透社此前報道，隨着這些業務同步推進，市場和分析人士對馬斯克是否能夠在多個高投入領域同時保持執行力的討論不斷升温。本期資深編輯  周玉華推薦閲讀","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}