AGS WEEK AHEAD: Traders Watch for Jobs Data as U.S. Encourages China Soybean Sales

Dow Jones
02/10
 

By Joe Stonor

 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of Feb. 9-13 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Agricultural traders will watch for delayed U.S. non-farm payroll data set for publication Wednesday and a consumer-price index print due Friday for more clues on the path forward for interest-rate cuts.

Weaker-than-expected jobs and inflation data would be bullish for agricultural commodity prices since they would increase the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts and weaken the dollar, analysts at Peak Trading Research said.

Earnings reports from market buyers Darling Ingredients and Kraft Heinz will also shape sentiment.

Tuesday's WASDE report from the U.S. agriculture department is expected to be a quiet one, with adjustments expected to be limited to ending stocks. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast that the volume of U.S. corn remaining in storage at the end of the market year on Aug. 31 will be higher than last month's projection, landing around 2.26 billion bushels. That's up from 2.23 billion bushels forecast in January, and well up from the 1.55 billion bushels seen at this time last year. Small decreases are expected for soybeans and wheat.

Soybeans returned to headlines Monday after USDA said the U.S. had sold 246,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 market year. The declaration comes after President Trump said last week that he was pushing China to purchase an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this marketing year, bringing the total sale volume to 20 million tons.

Soybean futures rallied Friday after President Trump's comments as traders looking to gain from falling prices moved to buy soybeans as their positions were squeezed, though prices fell back Monday.

South American weather remains a risk to production, while Northern Hemisphere planting is also uncertain because of weather disruption, analysts at Peak Trading Research said. Warmer weather across the U.S. Midwest is expected this week after a burst of arctic chill over the weekend, according to data provider DTN. Argentinian rain is expected to help corn and soybean crops, though rains may not reach the country's driest areas, the provider said.

Wheat futures fall 0.5% in Chicago to $5.27 a bushel in European afternoon trade Monday, while corn futures slipped 0.6% to $4.28 a bushel. Soybean futures traded down 0.7% at $11.08 a bushel after Friday's rally saw prices above $11.36.

SOFT COMMODITIES:

Coffee, cocoa and sugar fell last week, dragging down global agricultural commodities indexes, analysts at Rabobank said, citing the Commitments of Traders report.

Concerns over weather conditions for Brazilian coffee production eased last week on improved January rainfall, leading Arabica prices to fall over 13% for the week. ICE coffee futures rebound slightly Monday, gaining 1.35% to trade at $3.80 a pound.

Cocoa prices continued to struggle under expectations of expanding supply and diminishing demand, the Rabobank analysts said.

Cocoa ICE Futures fell sharply Monday, with prices falling 1.6% to $4,038 a ton as trading remains volatile.

Arabica coffee futures were up 1.2% to trade at $3.01 a pound. Sugar futures gained 1.9% on the intercontinental exchange to 14.4 cents a pound.

Cocoa in New York and London, as well as sugar no. 11, are the cheapest and most oversold agricultural futures, analysts at Peak Trading Research said.

 

Write to Joe Stonor at josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 09, 2026 13:14 ET (18:14 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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