By Anthony Harrup
The recent rise in crude oil prices was the result of short-term supply disruptions, including the impact on production from winter storm Fern in the U.S., and will likely revert as global output increases and inventories build, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.
"Unplanned disruptions to crude oil production in the United States and Kazakhstan tightened near-term oil supplies in January and caused crude oil prices to rise," the EIA said in its latest monthly outlook. At the same time, cold weather in the northern hemisphere pushed up demand, adding to the price increases.
The agency estimates that global oil inventories will see builds of 3.1 million barrels a day this year, up from 2.7 million barrels a day in 2025, and then slow to 2.7 million barrels a day in 2027.
The EIA forecasts Brent crude to average $58 a barrel this year, up from its previous estimate of $56 a barrel but down from $69 a barrel in 2025. It raised its 2026 West Texas Intermediate price forecast to $53 a barrel from $52 a barrel, which is down from $65 a barrel in 2025.
Recent tensions between the U.S. and Iran have contributed to higher oil prices at the start of the year, the EIA noted, and while Iranian production has remained stable so far, "actions targeting oil infrastructure or a conflict that affects flows through Strait of Hormuz could obviously reduce Middle East oil production and exports."
The availability of Venezuelan crude oil following the U.S. ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and easing of oil sanctions remains a point of uncertainty in the forecast, according to the EIA.
The agency expects Venezuelan oil production to return to levels seen before the U.S. blockade by the second quarter of 2026. "Any further ease of sanctions or changes to U.S. government policy related to Venezuela could result in more oil production than we assumed in this forecast and put additional downward pressure on oil prices," the EIA added.
Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 10, 2026 13:23 ET (18:23 GMT)
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