By Dominic Chopping

Mercedes-Benz Group is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter on Thursday. Here is what you need to know.

REVENUE FORECAST: The German luxury-car company's group revenue is expected at 34.79 billion euros ($41.39 billion), according to a FactSet analyst poll, down from 38.45 billion euros in the fourth quarter of the prior year.

NET PROFIT FORECAST: Net profit is expected at 1.09 billion euros, down from 2.6 billion euros, according to FactSet.

Shares are up 1% over the past 12 months at 58.15 euros.

WHAT TO WATCH

--The automaker has guided for 2025 revenue to be significantly below that of 2024, with an adjusted return on sales for cars of 4%-6%. Jefferies analysts expect a fourth-quarter cars margin of 3.1%, impacted by tariffs, raw materials, cost seasonality and China weakness altogether offsetting a fairly solid high-end model mix.

--Mercedes-Benz will announce 2026 guidance in conjunction with its earnings, and analysts at J.P. Morgan expect the company to guide for an auto margin of 4%-6%, with free cash flow of 3.5 billion euros excluding potential asset sales.

--J.P. Morgan says the key building blocks for the year ahead will be auto revenues down by a single-digit percentage, with the company's work to reduce costs and cut headcount helping to offset negative impacts to the earnings before interest and taxes margin from product price and mix, currency headwinds and research and development costs.

--Mercedes is likely to struggle to compete in China, especially in the near term, due to competition and the luxury tax, RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan says. In the U.S., RBC says the tariff impact this year could be similar to 2025's at 150-200 basis points.

Write to Dominic Chopping at dominic.chopping@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 11, 2026 06:33 ET (11:33 GMT)

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