Fiserv's (FISV) 2026 outlook of $8.00 to $8.30 in adjusted earnings per share and 1% to 3% of revenue growth is more H2 weighted than expected, Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note.

The company's 2026 revenue is expected to be down in low-single digits in both Q1 and Q2 as the company laps a higher mix of non-recurring revenue from the previous year, Morgan Stanley said.

Morgan Stanley further said that the impact will be "more pronounced" for the company's Financial Solutions segment, which is expected to drop at the high end of mid-single digits in H1, similar to consensus expectation of a 5% decline.

Morgan Stanley now anticipates 2026 revenue growth of 1.9%, compared with 2.7% prior, supported by Merchant growth of 4.8%, from 4.6% previously, and Financials segment decline of 1%, versus 0.6% growth previously.

The firm reduced its 2026 buyback assumptions to $800 million from $3.5 billion previously, further estimating adjusted earnings of $8.16 per share, compared with $8.27 previously.

Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on Fiserv to $64 from $81 and maintained its equalweight rating.

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