Stock Market Suffers AI-Inspired Meltdown. The Real World Wins Again

Dow Jones
02/15

Some questions have no answers -- and the lack of answers was a real problem for the stock market this past week.

The question: How much damage will artificial-intelligence technology unleash, and on what? On Monday, it was insurance brokers, including Aon, Arthur J. Gallagher, and Marsh. On Tuesday, it was wealth managers' turn, with Charles Schwab and LPL Financial Holdings among those getting hit. Wednesday brought a selloff for real estate companies like BXP and Jones Lang LaSalle. Logistics companies, including XPO and J.B. Hunt Transport Services, got clobbered on Thursday.

All told, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index are down more than 0.7% this week, and the Nasdaq Composite has slid 1.3%. Big Tech provided no succor, with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven exchange-traded fund dropping 2.3%.

Good economic data wasn't able to give the stock market a boost this past week. Wednesday's jobs report was stronger than expected. But that just means that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts will be postponed for a couple of months, says Andrew Szczurowski, a strategic income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. There could be more clues about that when the minutes from the Fed's January meeting are released on Feb. 18.

But even if the Fed doesn't cut rates as quickly -- or as often -- as the market expects, Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers, doesn't think that's a bad thing. "The Fed is maybe going to be less accommodative, but for good reason," he said. "If there are fewer rate cuts because the economy is healthy, that won't derail the U.S. equity market."

Meanwhile, Wall Street is taking comfort in physical objects -- and the companies that sell them. Caterpillar, Sherwin-Williams, McDonald's, Walmart, and Home Depot were among the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that rallied during a tough week overall.

Dividends, too, are real, tangible things -- and investors flocked to them too. Verizon Communications, with a dividend yield of 5.8%, was the second-best Dow performer in the past week, and shares are up more than 20% so far this year. Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth Group, and Procter & Gamble, which also pay healthy dividends, were standouts in the Dow too. Utilities and real estate stocks also rallied, while the broader market dipped. "Investors still want dividends," said Rick Ratkowski, director of investment strategies at NISA Investment Advisors.

More value-oriented sectors could get a boost as well. Natixis' Chetouane points to good values in the energy and financial sectors, while the recent outperformance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 and midsize stocks -- the S&P MidCap 400 index is up 7% this year -- should continue.

Someday, the AI worries -- and the selloff they sparked -- will end. Until then, the real world is your friend.

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