FedEx (FDX) is facing potential structural e-commerce market headwinds as it appears that the company will rely on the market to drive its earnings before interest and taxes growth after 2027, Morgan Stanley said in a Friday note.

The company was "relatively light on new announcements or initiatives" during its recent investor day event, Morgan Stanley said, noting that its Network 2.0 initiative is set to conclude in 2027. The brokerage said this indicates that FedEx will count on the market and the impacts of its previous initiatives over the past years for future growth.

FedEx management's 2029 guidance is estimated to be about 15% above Street consensus but comparisons may not be accurate given the company's fiscal year change and its spinoff of the freight business, Morgan Stanley said. The firm, however, said it does not expect "a material acceleration" in earnings in the coming years.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target on FedEx to $220 from $210, with an underweight rating.

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