By Giulia Petroni

Here's a look at what happened in oil markets in the week of Feb. 9-13 and what the focus will be in the days to come.

OVERVIEW: Oil prices are on track for a weekly decline, with Brent crude trading around $67 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is at $62 a barrel in afternoon European trading as investors closely monitor developments between the U.S. and Iran.

MACRO: A cooler-than-expected inflation reading and a strong jobs report are likely to keep Federal Reserve policy on hold. Annual inflation slowed in January, easing more than economists had forecast, as declines in gasoline and used-vehicle prices helped temper price pressures.

The Labor Department's report on Friday followed a stronger-than-expected January employment reading earlier this week. Together, the data are unlikely to shift the Fed from its current wait-and-see stance on interest rates. Lower borrowing costs typically support economic activity and demand, a backdrop that tends to benefit commodities.

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS: Markets remain on edge amid concerns that any escalation between the U.S. and Iran could disrupt energy flows in the oil-rich region, with analysts saying the main risks include potential U.S. strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure or interference with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Remarks from President Trump that he favors securing a nuclear deal with Iran and plans to continue negotiations have helped temper fears of imminent military action and supply disruptions. Still, the Pentagon is deploying the Navy's largest and most advanced aircraft carrier to the Middle East, where it will join the USS Abraham Lincoln and nine other warships. "The situation therefore remains tense and justifies a risk premium for the time being," said Barbara Lambrecht from Commerzbank Research.

Geopolitical tensions are also adding pressure to global supplies, as large volumes of sanctioned oil remain stranded at sea, pushing prices higher as buyers compete for alternative barrels. As a result of sanctions and restrictions, buyers of Russian and Iranian oil are now reaching for Western or Saudi supplies, Vitol's chief executive, Russell Hardy, said at International Energy Week in London.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND: The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for oil-demand growth this year and said supply is expected to rebound after January's weather-related losses in the U.S. The agency continues to project a sizable surplus, though some analysts argue the oversupply may prove less pronounced than currently estimated.

"China is likely to absorb a considerable portion of the oversupply this year with its reserve purchases," said Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank. "The same could apply to India if, after withdrawing from oil supplies from Russia, it switches to other suppliers, causing a tightening of supply in those countries."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the recent rise in crude prices stemmed from temporary supply disruptions, including production losses linked to winter storm Fern, and is likely to reverse as global output increases and inventories build. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries left its demand forecasts largely unchanged, but reported a sharp drop in OPEC+ production in January.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories increased sharply last week as production recovered from winter storm disruptions. Crude oil stocks rose by 8.5 million barrels last week, the EIA said. Crude stocks were expected to have fallen by 400,000 barrels, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts.

NEXT WEEK: U.S.-Iran negotiations will be key to oil's near-term direction, while traders will also keep a close eye on production losses and India's search for alternative suppliers to Russian crude. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine officials will hold U.S.-brokered talks in Geneva, marking the latest round of negotiations aimed at ending the four-year war.

On the economic front, U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents' Day. Key events to watch include minutes from the January FOMC meeting, weekly jobless claims, the U.S. trade deficit, GDP figures and PCE data. These releases will be closely watched for clues about the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, overall economic growth and inflation trends.

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 13, 2026 10:55 ET (15:55 GMT)

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