Geopolitical risks and consequent outages may tighten crude oil supply, ANZ Research said in a report on Friday.

Oil price is holding above $65 per barrel and volatility is rising. Russian oil exports to unknown destinations are increasing, while China's oil imports from Russia are increasing. China's estimated oil stockpile is increasing.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries's oil output fell in January to the lowest level in a year. Meanwhile, US drill-rig counts are declining, but efficiency will keep production growth flat in 2026. US oil demand is showing seasonal weakness, while US oil inventories are building.

Liquefied natural gas prices moderating as the northern hemisphere winter season nears an end.

Meanwhile, gold is facing a temporary price setback, not a reversal, as it remains anchored near a price of $5,000 per ounce, ANZ said. Intensifying geopolitical risks supports haven demand, while easing policy rate will support investment flows into gold. The equity market shows a concentration risk, driven by AI

investment, while gold is still relatively under-owned against traditional assets.

Gold is flowing out from the US, while China's gold investment demand is getting stronger. Gold mine production growth is steady near 2% to 2.5%.

Silver is below its historical 1980 inflation-adjusted price after falling to $72 per ounce. Higher silver prices will impact demand from the solar sector.

Copper concentrate market remains tight as mine production falls in major producing countries, ANZ said. Meanwhile, alumina prices are expected to remain subdued amid ample supply. The US' aluminum spot premium rose to a record high.

China's iron ore imports are rising as inventories build, even as steel demand in the country continues to be weak, despite stocks being at a multi-year low, ANZ said.